Mark Temnycky on Russo-Ukraine August and some of September
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): A Further Inquiry
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/09/27
Mark Temnycky is a Ukrainian-American analyst and freelance journalist specializing in American, European, and Eurasia affairs. He serves as a Nonresident Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center (since December 2021), and he is a geopolitics contributor at Forbes. Previously, he spent nearly seven years as a U.S. defense contractor supporting the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition & Sustainment. His work appears across leading outlets and think tanks, with a curated portfolio of articles and media available online.
In this interview with Scott Douglas Jacobsen, Temnycky says Russia’s Aug. 28 missile-drone strike on Kyiv killed 21 and injured 48, hitting the EU mission and British Council. Human Rights Watch logged 100+ attacks on Ukraine’s grid (Mar–Aug 2025), blackouts in 17 regions, likely IHL violations targeting objects indispensable to civilians. Russia’s Aug. 30 “strategic initiative” claim is belied by incremental gains and heavy losses. Ukrainian strikes on Saratov and Ryazan disrupted up to 17% of refining capacity, lifted retail fuel >5%, and strained logistics. POW swaps on Aug. 14 and 24 exchanged 84 and 146 per side. U.S. and EU signaled tighter sanctions.
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: What do assessments conclude about the August 28 missile-drone strike on Kyiv?
Mark Temnycky: On August 28, Russia launched another missile and drone strike on Kyiv, as well as several other cities across Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities reported that there were at least 21 fatalities. An additional 48 individuals were injured. The attack also hit the European Union mission building and the British Council in Kyiv. Like in other cases when Russia launched missile and drone strikes on civilian areas, the Russian attack on August 28 was widely condemned by senior European elected officials.
Jacobsen: How do August’s hits on energy infrastructure (e.g., Kremenchuk/Poltava) fit into HRW’s tally of attacks?
Temnycky: The August strikes on energy infrastructure fit into Human Rights Watch’s tally of more than 100 Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power grids between March and August 2025. HRW has been documenting these attacks throughout the war. In their reporting, HRW stated that strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have caused blackouts across 17 regions in Ukraine. Based on its findings, HRW has described Russia’s attacks as unlawful under international humanitarian law.
Jacobsen: Do these breach international humanitarian law?
Temnycky: According to international law experts and those who study human rights, Russian missile drone strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure likely breach international humanitarian law. This is because the Russians are targeting facilities that overwhelmingly serve civilian populations. Ukraine’s energy infrastructure provides heat and electricity to millions of Ukrainians, so if any energy facilities are damaged or destroyed, millions of Ukrainians would then be without heat and electricity. International law prohibits attacks on objects indispensable to civilian survival, and in this case, energy facilities would count.
Jacobsen: What battlefield evidence supports/contradicts Russia’s August 30 claim to hold the “strategic initiative”?
Temnycky: Moscow made incremental gains around Pokrovsk and along the Kharkiv-Sumy border, but these advances are far smaller than the inflated figures Russian commanders publicly cite. Independent assessments, meanwhile, have shown Ukrainian forces retaking some villages and territory in Sumy. Coupled with high Russian losses and the absence of a real operational breakthrough, Russia’s “strategic initiative” is inaccurate.
Jacobsen: What measurable effects did Ukraine’s Aug–Sept strikes on Saratov and Ryazan on have on fuel prices and military logistics?
Temnycky: Ukraine’s attacks have disrupted up to 17 percent of Russia’s refining capacity, according to reports. This has also pushed retail costs of gas up more than 5 percent this calendar year. The strikes have caused fuel shortages in places such as Crimea, where Russia is rationing gas. Finally, not only have these fuel disruptions strained Russia’s domestic energy market, but it has also complicated the Russian Federation’s military logistics by tightening fuel supplies needed for its war efforts. Gas is required to operate Russia’s military vehicles.
Jacobsen: What were the terms and conditions of the POW exchanges on August 14 and 24?
Temnycky: On August 14, Ukraine and Russia each swapped 84 POWs. This included military personnel and civilians. Then, on August 24, 146 Russian servicemen were returned to Russia, while Ukraine received 146 individuals, which included both service members and civilians.
Jacobsen: How many Ukrainian civilians remain in Russian detention?
Temnycky: The exact number is difficult to say due to limited access for independent verification. Several international organizations have attempted to study this, where their estimates report that thousands of civilians continue to be held in various detention facilities across the Russian Federation as well as the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine. Efforts by international organizations and Ukrainian authorities are ongoing as they look to document these detentions, but since they do not have access to these regions controlled by Russia, there are conservative estimates as to how many Ukrainian civilians remain in Russian detention.
Jacobsen: How did U.S. and European signaling between August 31 to September 7 alter Moscow’s incentives?
Temnycky: U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would be ready to implement new sanctions on the Russian Federation. These penalties would include tariffs on countries that purchase Russian oil and crude. It remains to be seen if and when these sanctions will be implemented.
Meanwhile, the Europeans announced that they will be preparing a new sanctions package to punish Russia for its ongoing war. In addition, European officials condemned Russia’s continued missile and drone strikes on Ukraine, and the Europeans reiterated their support for Ukraine. Several European countries also announced that they would send new defense assistance packages to Ukraine.
Jacobsen: Given the August 28 civilian toll and sustained grid attacks, what accountability pathways are viable?
Temnycky: Closing loopholes that exist in the current Russian sanctions policy, and strengthening sanctions on Russia’s energy market, would put more pressure on Russia. It has been widely reported that revenue earned from Russian energy sales, such as oil and gas, has helped boost the Russian economy. The money earned is then used to purchase weapons and equipment for Russia’s war.
Jacobsen: Thank you for the opportunity and your time, Mark.
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