Ask A Genius 1345: The Future of Family: Declining Birthrates, Artificial Wombs, and Elon Musk’s Reproductive Legacy
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/04/07
Rick Rosner: Look at the population curve. It is not heading toward zero anytime in the next 800 years. If we have that long to adapt, it is not a crisis—or at least not an existential one. You asked whether we’ll see more healthy single-parent families, adopted kids, and similar setups—especially with the rise of automation.
Not exactly. We will see a broader mix of arrangements alongside traditional families. People are already having fewer children—global fertility rates have dropped from around 5 in 1950 to below 2.5 today. In many developed countries, it is well below replacement level. Nuclear families will continue, but we will also see cohabiting couples without kids, communal parenting, co-parenting without romance, and polyamorous or asexual family structures.
These alternatives will seem less unusual over time. I watched the start of a bad sci-fi movie where no one gives birth anymore—babies are grown in synthetic egg-like pods. Ridiculous in presentation, but not far off conceptually. In 2017, researchers at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia developed an artificial womb that sustained premature lambs for weeks in a fluid-filled “biobag.” Ectogenesis—gestation outside the human body—is progressing. Japan and the Netherlands are both funding artificial womb research. So future generations may opt out of pregnancy entirely.
We will also see outlandish tech. If someone wants to avoid the physical cost of pregnancy, they might turn to full surrogacy, uterine transplants—which have already produced live births—or biotech solutions like bioprinted wombs. The biotech is not speculative—it is under active development.
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: Kal-El, from Superman—they are grown, not born.
Rosner: Nicolas Cage named his son Kal-El. If he could grow a superkid in an artificial womb, he would. Elon Musk might too. He’s spoken about population collapse being a bigger threat than climate change.
With Musk, I am not sure if he wants all those kids or if he is just prolific—king of the “hot loads”—and indifferent to what happens after. He now has 11 publicly known children with three different women. He claims he’s helping to address “underpopulation.” Maybe that’s his logic. Maybe he just sees reproduction as an evolutionary obligation.
Still, based on his output, he’s probably a boxers guy. Keeps the swimmers active.
Let’s end it there.
Jacobsen: Thanks. See you tomorrow.
Rosner: Talk then.
Jacobsen: Most of my life. Bye.
Rosner: Bye. Thanks.
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