Everywhere Insiders 30: Global Crises and Policy Failures
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): The Good Men Project
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2026/01/15
Irina Tsukerman is a human rights and national security attorney based in New York and Connecticut. She earned her Bachelor of Arts in National and Intercultural Studies and Middle East Studies from Fordham University in 2006, followed by a Juris Doctor from Fordham University School of Law in 2009. She operates a boutique national security law practice. She serves as President of Scarab Rising, Inc., a media and security strategic advisory firm. Additionally, she is the Editor-in-Chief of The Washington Outsider, which focuses on foreign policy, geopolitics, security, and human rights. She is actively involved in several professional organizations, including the American Bar Association’s Energy, Environment, and Science and Technology Sections, where she serves as Program Vice Chair in the Oil and Gas Committee. She is also a member of the New York City Bar Association. She serves on the Middle East and North Africa Affairs Committee and affiliates with the Foreign and Comparative Law Committee.
In this wide-ranging conversation, Scott Douglas Jacobsen speaks with Irina Tsukerman about three seemingly distinct issues that reveal common failures in modern governance. Tsukerman reflects on a devastating Swiss resort fire, emphasizing the human toll, emergency preparedness, and the limits of even high-standard safety systems. Turning to China’s attempt to reverse population decline through taxing contraceptives, she argues the policy misunderstands basic economics and human psychology, risking resentment rather than growth. Finally, she analyzes Ukraine’s leadership shift toward security-experienced figures, contending that Kyrylo Budanov’s appointment reflects a global move away from diplomacy toward hard-security realism in an increasingly unstable world.
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: Breaking international news. Seems comically tragic. A Swiss ski-resort bar fire likely started by sparkler-style “fountain” candles. Severe burns have made identification of bodies challenging. Dozens have been transferred to specialist burn units across Europe, and many of those injured are fighting for their lives. Thoughts on this? Can you send me the article? I just want to take a look. In the chat.
Irina Tsukerman: The situation in Switzerland is extremely sad. It is one of those tragedies that sometimes happens because of regulatory failure, sometimes just an accident, a happenstance. In this case, it is particularly tragic because you greet a new year, you expect a new start, and it begins with a horrible tragedy.
There is nothing political about it, as far as I see. In terms of the context of that particular venue, authorities are investigating possible negligence related to safety measures and whether building materials contributed to how fast the fire spread. So far, it appears that sparkler-style “fountain” candles held too close to the ceiling may have ignited flammable insulation and quickly engulfed the venue.
It does raise questions about why more people were not able to exit safely and faster. Was the planning—logistical planning—suitable for such a large gathering at a very crowded social event? Unfortunately, because of the nature of the injuries, it will take more time than normal to identify victims. Identification is ongoing and is expected to take days, given the extent of burns. There have already been stories of families searching for missing loved ones; some people may be injured rather than dead, but reconnecting and confirming identities can still take time. It is absolutely devastating.
Switzerland lowered flags to half-mast after the tragedy. For Switzerland, it is a rare and deeply shocking event. Generally, the country has very high safety standards, and you do not hear of disasters of this scale. Unfortunately, something like this can happen anywhere, and sometimes tragic accidents are exactly that.
I really wish all the survivors a speedy and complete recovery, including recovery from psychological trauma resulting from this terrible incident. I also hope that the families who lost someone are able to identify them and gain closure as soon as possible.
Jacobsen: Chinese approach to an international problem. China has ended a long-standing tax exemption and, from January 1, 2026, condoms and contraceptive drugs and devices now incur a 13% value-added tax—the standard rate for many consumer goods—in a stated effort to support broader measures aimed at addressing the country’s declining birth rate, which has fallen for a third consecutive year as of 2024.
Tsukerman: I am going to say it once, because it may sound funny: taxing your way into reversing a demographic decline does not work, and it is never going to work. I think the result is likely to be more tragic than desirable. Quite frankly, unless the taxes on contraceptives are sky-high, it is simply going to make things a little more expensive. It means that if people are concerned about family planning, they will cut back somewhere else and spend less on leisure in order to afford new taxes.
Especially if their concern is economic, spending a little bit more in taxes is going to be a fraction of what they would normally spend on raising a child, even in a socialist society.
It is still much more expensive to raise a child than to spend more on contraceptive measures. From a simple economic perspective, the calculus is not even close. That is why this measure is going to fail.
Second, trying to create a negative incentive for not having children is also perverse. If you are genuinely opposed to having an additional child at this point in your life, or in general, the cost of contraceptives is going to be the least of your concerns. There are far more serious considerations than the cost of condoms or similar products.
The fact that the Chinese government—and other governments trying to do the same thing, and there are many—do not understand basic human psychology and how people calculate family planning decisions is another reason why they failed previously and are failing again now. Trying to reduce human motivation to the cost of condoms is, in my opinion, humorous and comical. But it is also tragic. It shows an extremely bureaucratic, petty, and narrow focus among officials tasked with addressing this issue.
It is also telling that they are undertaking this task without even attempting to conduct a poll on the biggest concerns families have and why they are not having children or not having more children. If you are going to reduce family planning to economic or political incentives, you would at least want to understand what people actually say motivates their decisions. If you are going to engage in policy planning to address that, you should respond to reality rather than to imagined motivations. All too often, allegedly well-meaning governments—this is not limited to demographic decline.
To finish that thought, governments often do not consult before attempting to formulate policies, which then backfire for fairly obvious reasons. In this case, there is an additional danger beyond simple ineffectiveness due to misaligned incentives. There is also the risk of creating resentment, where parents are effectively pressured to have children they do not want for economic reasons. That resentment can later be projected within families, with anger directed at government policies and, tragically, at unwanted children born as a result.
Jacobsen: Zelenskyy has appointed Kyrylo Budanov as a potential chief of staff. What are your thoughts on this? I believe this is a replacement for the person who was ousted previously—the individual who was, apart from prior experience, also a lifelong friend.
Tsukerman: Yes, it stings on a more visceral level. I think Budanov is an exceptionally good choice. First, he is one of the most popular figures in Ukraine right now, so from a political perspective, it is wise. From a policy perspective, he has shown himself to be very competent and is likely to continue to be effective. He can translate his experience managing a major security agency into strategic advice as chief of staff, particularly on a management level.
From a broader policy perspective, this appointment demonstrates the increasing importance of security agencies within Ukraine’s current political paradigm. As diplomacy becomes more fragmented, more transactional, and increasingly theatrical—particularly in relation to U.S. politics—the role of the security apparatus naturally increases. It is very unlikely that there will be a political solution to the current security situation in the near future.
For that reason, the focus is shifting toward people who can manage the situation more effectively in the interim. Those with security backgrounds and operational experience are much more likely to be useful at this stage than traditional diplomats or public administration officials. I think that is a major part of the reasoning behind Budanov’s appointment. He is a very high-profile figure and also fairly—
Popular in the West, I think it will be much more difficult for Western officials to attack him. Leaving aside the controversies associated with Yermak’s personality and corruption-related scandals, Budanov not only has a stellar reputation, but also a level of respect among his counterparts in Western intelligence and security agencies. That respect will make it very difficult for political messaging to undercut him or his management of Zelenskyy’s office.
By bringing him in and elevating him as his right hand, I think Zelenskyy is also sending a very strong message to the international community.
Jacobsen: Thank you very much for the opportunity and your time, Irina.
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