Current U.S. Foreign Policy and Its Impact on Canada: An Expert Perspective
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): The Good Men Project
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/07/07
Defense expert Anthony Cowden outlines the current U.S. administration’s foreign policy as a return to “Primacy” and a tripartite world ruled by the U.S., Russia, and China. This policy shift has led to strained relations with Canada, particularly through tariff-based economic coercion and disrespectful rhetoric framing Canada as the “51st state.” Violations of the USMCA and unilateral policy declarations by the President have eroded diplomatic trust. Canada, under Prime Minister Mark Carney, is now pivoting east and west to diversify trade, signaling a significant shift in North American economic and strategic alignment.
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: What is the current U.S. administration’s approach to foreign policy?
Anthony Cowden: The current U.S. administration approach to foreign policy can be summarized as a “return to Primacy” (1) and “rule by great powers” (2). The U.S. administration believes that the U.S. retains a singular position as the most powerful nation in the world, and is able to set “…norms of behaviour, determining when those norms have been breached, and action to enforce them.”(1) Ironically, as I have noted previously, “…the U.S. is rapidly shedding both its security and economic partners, so while it will still be a great power, the US will never again be as powerful in absolute terms as it is today.” (2). Current U.S. foreign policy actions seem to suggest that the U.S envisions a world not guided by past principals of liberal internationalism, but instead a “…a tripartite world ruled by three great powers – the United States, Russia, and China – each with their own sphere of influence.” (2)
(1) https://www.lowyinstitute.org/archive/what-primacy-exactly
(2)https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2025/03/31/a_tripartite_word__sort_of_1100856.html
Jacobsen: You mentioned economic coercion to pressure Canada. What is the form of coercion perceived by Canadian policymakers?
Cowden: The economic coercion that the U.S. is currently employing against Canada is, of course, tariffs. Despite the fact that the current President negotiated the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2018, the administration has turned its back on that agreement in a campaign to, at the very least, intimidate and cow Canadian leadership. It is not yet clear if this administration will expand its coercive efforts beyond tariff policy.
A parenthetical note about U.S. administration policies regarding the USMCA: since the U.S. has violated the USMCA with respect to economic relations with both Canada and Mexico, it is not clear why any nation would believe that the U.S. would honor any future trade agreement made with this administration. At the very least, considering the wide range of restrictive tariffs this administration has imposed on nations around the world, and the time it takes to negotiate and enact lasting trade policies, it suggests that trade policy with the U.S. will be in flux for the entirety of the second trump administration.
Jacobsen: What actions by the U.S. administration damaged diplomatic rapport with Canada?
Cowden: The U.S. administration has damaged diplomatic rapport with Canada in a number of ways. One way was violating the terms of the USMCA in levying restrictive tariffs on Canada. While many of those tariffs have been rolled back, tariffs on aluminum, steel and oil (for example) are still in place. Another way is to belittle the previous Prime Minister by referring to him as a “governor”, implying he was only the leader of a future U.S. state, not the elected head of state of a sovereign nation. Given that nation is the closest ally and economic partner of the United States, this statement was viewed as being deeply offensive. Finally, the most egregious action has been to state that the U.S. seeks to make Canada the 51st state through economic coercion. For some reason this administration does not recognize the importance of national sovereignty under international law, or its relationship to national pride, security, and autonomy.
A parenthetical note about U.S. policy: when the President says something, that is U.S. policy. Normally, presidential statements of any import are preceded by consideration through the interagency process. In this process, the applicable departments of the U.S. government staff the issue at hand, considering all the known and anticipated ramifications of a proposed policy, often with consultation with Congress, before it is announced by the president. No such process exists under the current administration; in this administration, the president makes statements, either through executive orders, interviews, or posts on social media (one of which, Truth Social, he owns), and that constitutes U.S. policy. Of particular note, there appears to be no real effort to engage Congress in any way, even to enact legislation to implement policies that require legislation.
Jacobsen: How is Canada evolving its response to unreliability in U.S. treaty obligations?
Cowden: I have not been following Canadian political efforts closely, but I would note that the newly elected Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has been the leader of two national banking systems, and is as well-equipped as any head of government to engage in and craft economic policy. I have predicted for some time that Canada would be looking both east to Europe and west to Asia to diversify its economic relationships so that it is not as economically reliant on the USMCA. (3)
Jacobsen: Canada is treated as a ’51st state.’ What are the rhetorical, symbolic, or policy, motives for this?
Cowden: With regard to Canada’s response to the unreliability of U.S. treaty obligations, see my previous reply. I would add that my understanding is that currently, oil pipelines that move oil from Canada’s western provinces to its eastern maritime provinces dip down into the U.S., but that a previously planned, but later cancelled, project to build a pipeline across Ontario will be re-started. This would allow Canada to easily ship western oil to eastern seaports without relying on U.S. oil pipeline infrastructure. This would allow Canada to more easily export oil to other markets without going through the U.S.
Jacobsen: How will North American strategic and economic stability be impacted by the current trends in U.S.-Canada relations?
Cowden: Incredible as it is to say, the motivation for U.S. policy to pursue making Canada the 51st state of the United States appears to be that the president himself does not view Canadian sovereignty as being legitimate, right, or necessary.
If current trends in U.S.-Canada relations continue, it will negatively affect the national wealth of both the U.S. and Canada. I believe permanent damage has been done to the U.S.-Canada economic, diplomatic, security, and popular relationship. Canadian citizens, arguably the most polite and accommodating people in the world, are seriously upset with current U.S. policy. Canada now knows that the U.S. political process can elect a president willing to violate his own trade agreements and other international norms, standards, rules and laws in dealing with other nations, including its closest (literally!) economic, diplomatic, and security ally, partner, and friend.
Jacobsen: Thank you for the opportunity and your time, Anthony.
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