New Hampshire’s Low Unemployment Rate
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): The Good Men Project
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/05/01
New Hampshire’s unemployment rate stands at 2.6%, reflecting a 0.6% monthly increase but a 42.1% decrease since December 2020. Chip Lupo notes that New Hampshire’s job market is thriving, with low poverty, strong private-sector absorption of federal job losses, and high job availability. While states like California face systemic employment challenges, New Hampshire ranks third nationally in job opportunities per capita. However, tariff impacts and federal job cuts could affect future trends. Kentucky, by contrast, ranks last, with unemployment claims surging over 270% year-over-year. Policy shifts, particularly around work requirements and training, are shaping employment landscapes across the U.S.
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: Today, we’re here with Chip Lupo to discuss New Hampshire’s unemployment rate. According to recent data from WalletHub, the rate is currently 2.6%, which reflects an increase of 0.6% from the previous month but a significant 42.1% decrease compared to December 2020.
Unemployment insurance claims have also seen a substantial drop. For the week ending March 24, 2025, New Hampshire posted one of the largest reductions in initial claims compared to the prior week and the same week in 2024.
So, when comparing this week to the previous week and to last year, what is happening with unemployment in New Hampshire? It is ranked among the top states, according to your analysis. What are some of the key findings?
Chip Lupo: We found that New Hampshire has performed exceptionally well across the board—both in the short term and compared to a year ago. These improvements show a job market that is not just stable but dynamic and evolving positively.
It’s interesting—I recently spoke with someone in San Francisco about California’s employment situation. While they’ve progressed since last year, they continue contending with deeper employment issues. By contrast, New Hampshire is showing strength both immediately and over time. The current figures indicate that its economy is robust. Not only is the unemployment rate low, but the underemployment rate has improved, and New Hampshire also ranks third nationally in job opportunities per capita, according to WalletHub.
New Hampshire also has the lowest percentage of its workforce living in poverty, which says much about the state’s ability to provide sustainable and inclusive employment.
More than 30 states recently saw decreased unemployment insurance claims, but 14 states—including Kentucky, Iowa, California, and Pennsylvania—experienced increases.
Jacobsen: So, what are some of the factors driving these mixed outcomes across the country?
Lupo: A major factor is the downsizing of federal government jobs. Federal jobs exist in every state, and when there are reductions, it affects state-level unemployment rates. That’s why it’s so important for states to cultivate strong private-sector economies. States that can absorb these displaced federal workers—like New Hampshire—show the strongest employment figures.
For example, Utah has a very healthy tech sector, which makes it an attractive destination for transitioning workers. When federal employees are laid off, those states with adaptable industries and job openings are best positioned to weather the changes.
But transitioning from federal employment to the private sector isn’t always simple. It raises a key question: do these workers typically find equivalent jobs immediately or need retraining?
Lupo: That’s the real challenge. The current focus is on reskilling and upskilling. I spoke with someone recently who emphasized this—especially for federal workers in tech or administration. Many individuals can transition, but shifting to a results-oriented private sector, where performance and profits are key, can be a culture shock. In government, performance expectations differ, and there’s often more job security.
In the private sector, you operate with company capital, which requires a more aggressive focus on outcomes. Adjusting to that environment is tough for some but necessary.
Jacobsen: As unemployment drops, are there any side effects or economic shocks to be aware of? Do we see other sectors reacting?
Lupo: Yes, when unemployment improves quickly, it can lead to fluctuations in other metrics, such as underemployment or wage pressure. However, in New Hampshire’s case, the consistent and widespread strength across different indicators—like job availability and low poverty levels—suggests a solid economic foundation. Still, watching broader trends is important, as economic ripples can take time to materialize fully.
Jacobsen: We see a clear downward trend in New Hampshire’s unemployment rate. But are there any other ripple effects or “wobbles” in the data that you’re noticing alongside that? What is your day-to-day analysis showing?
Lupo: Yes, great question. Beyond the unemployment rate itself, we’re seeing a few key developments. One thing to watch is the impact of tariffs—particularly the new or expanded tariffs raising the cost of goods for manufacturers and import-heavy businesses. If those costs continue to climb, companies may be forced to make tough decisions, including potential layoffs. Whether or not that’s already priced into their forecasts is something we’re closely monitoring.
Jacobsen: And in terms of the numbers, you noted something interesting. The difference between the most recent weekly data and last year’s point is about 6%.
Lupo: Exactly. It’s about a 6% difference, a fairly moderate shift when comparing those two distinct points in time—roughly fifty-one to fifty-three weeks apart. That suggests that while the short-term changes look dramatic—say, week-over-week or even month-over-month—when you zoom out over the year, we’re seeing a stabilization in unemployment levels. That consistency can signify resilience, especially when paired with sustained low levels, like in New Hampshire.
Jacobsen: So that speaks to policy as well?
Lupo: Definitely. Kudos to the policymakers in New Hampshire who have fostered a more job-friendly environment. Another important factor is how states react to anticipated changes at the federal level, especially concerning work requirements for public assistance. Several states are tightening eligibility, particularly for non-disabled adults, requiring them to seek employment in order to receive certain benefits. That policy shift is nudging more people back into the workforce, another reason we see improved employment numbers in states like New Hampshire.
Jacobsen: Are other states following suit?
Lupo: Yes, expect to see more states adjust their public assistance policies, specifically by adding or enforcing work requirements. That move can directly reduce the number of people drawing unemployment benefits and increase workforce participation—though, of course, it must be balanced with access to job training and reskilling programs.
Jacobsen: On the flip side, which state is at the bottom of the list right now?
Lupo: Statistically speaking, that would be Kentucky.
Jacobsen: Kentucky? Really?
Lupo: Yes—Kentucky is currently ranked dead last. The state has shown a nearly 15% increase in unemployment claims from just one week ago and over a 270% increase compared to the same week last year. Those are staggering figures. Something is happening locally in their economy—whether it’s a policy shift, a regional economic downturn, or a combination of both.
Jacobsen: That is surprising, especially given that parts of Kentucky, like Louisville and Lexington, have strong metro job markets.
Lupo: True, but rural Kentucky still represents a significant portion of the state, and that’s where we often see higher unemployment. Sectors like coal mining, which still play a role in parts of Kentucky, have been declining or are unstable. The result is a divided economic landscape—urban areas are doing relatively well, while rural regions are struggling.
According to WalletHub’s latest data, Kentucky is last in both week-over-week improvements and initial claims per 100,000 workforce. So yes, it is very much the polar opposite of New Hampshire right now.
Jacobsen: That puts things in perspective. Maybe Kentucky could benefit from studying what New Hampshire, Maryland, and the rest of the top-performing states are doing to strengthen their job markets.
Lupo: Absolutely. Each state’s situation is unique, but learning from best practices—whether it’s in job creation, private-sector incentives, or workforce development—can go a long way in turning things around.
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