Water Scarcity Solutions in MENA: Challenges, Innovations

Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen

Publication (Outlet/Website): The Good Men Project

Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/04/29

Dr. Marouane Temimi, an Associate Professor at Stevens Institute of Technology, specializes in hydrometeorology, remote sensing, and water resource management. He discusses water scarcity in the MENA region, emphasizing climate change, population growth, and poor governance as key factors. He highlights desalination, cloud seeding, and aquifer recharge as solutions, particularly in the UAE. Addressing regional conflicts, he cites the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam as a major dispute affecting Egypt and Sudan. He suggests North America could improve water infrastructure by redistributing resources to drought-prone areas. Policy and engineering innovations are essential for global water sustainability.

Scott Douglas Jacobsen: So today, we’re here with Dr. Marouane Temimi.

He is an Associate Professor in the Department of Civil, Environmental, and Ocean Engineering at Stevens Institute of Technology. I have conducted at least one interview with someone from that institute before. Dr. Temimi leads the Coastal Environmental Sensing and Modeling Lab and specializes in hydrometeorology, remote sensing, and numerical modeling, with a focus on natural hazards and water resource management.

Dr. Temimi earned his Ph.D. in Civil Engineering from the University of Quebec in February 2006. He previously worked at the Masdar Institute (a collaboration with MIT) and NOAA-CREST at the City University of New York.

A recipient of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences Fellowship, he is also a member of AGU and AWRA. Thank you very much for joining me today. I appreciate it.

Dr. Marouane Temimi: Thank you. I’m happy to be here.

Jacobsen: First question: How have anthropogenic climate change and population growth worsened water scarcity in the Middle East and Africa?

Temimi: There are multiple factors at play when it comes to water scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. One of the primary drivers is population growth, which increases demand for water. Many parts of the MENA region already experience extreme water stress, meaning demand far exceeds available supply. As populations grow, this stress intensifies, especially in urban centers and agricultural zones. Unlike some other regions that benefit from renewable freshwater sources, many countries in MENA rely on non-renewable groundwater from deep aquifers. These aquifers are being depleted faster than they can naturally recharge, making water scarcity a growing crisis.

Climate change has also worsened this problem. Rising global temperatures lead to increased evaporation rates, reducing the overall availability of surface water in lakes, rivers, and reservoirs. Additionally, changing precipitation patterns mean that some areas receive less rainfall, while others experience extreme flooding that can damage infrastructure and pollute existing water sources. In arid regions like North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, climate change has made droughts more frequent and severe. This not only reduces available freshwater but also disrupts agriculture, food security, and livelihoods for millions of people.

Another major challenge is pollution and water quality deterioration. As industries and urban populations expand, so does wastewater discharge into lakes, rivers, and coastal waters. In the Gulf region, desalination plays a crucial role in providing freshwater, but this process has negative environmental impacts. Desalination plants extract seawater and remove the salt, but they also discharge highly concentrated brine back into the ocean. This increases seawater salinity, making future desalination more difficult and costly. In areas where evaporation rates are already high—such as the Persian Gulf—this cycle of rising salinity creates long-term sustainability challenges for water management.

Beyond natural factors, there are also policy and governance challenges. Many MENA countries rely on outdated water management strategies that do not account for the reality of climate change and rapid urbanization. Some regions still prioritize water-intensive agriculture, growing crops that require large amounts of irrigation despite water scarcity. There is also a lack of coordination on transboundary water resources, meaning countries that share rivers or underground aquifers struggle to agree on sustainable usage. Political conflicts in the region have further strained water infrastructure, making it harder for governments to implement long-term solutions.

Ultimately, the combination of population growth, climate change, pollution, poor water governance, and regional conflicts has made water scarcity one of the most pressing issues in the Middle East and North Africa. To address these challenges, countries in the region must invest in sustainable water management solutions, including water recycling, improved irrigation efficiency, better governance, and regional cooperation. Without immediate action, the region faces a growing water crisis that will impact not only drinking water supplies but also agriculture, energy production, and economic stability.

So it’s a vicious cycle that we get caught in. 

Jacobsen: What about factors like increased rainfall variability? With climate change effects, we’re seeing localized weather events that fluctuate dramatically from season to season. For instance, one year, there may be heavy rainfall, and the next, prolonged dry spells.

Temimi: In the first part of my answer, I focused on anthropogenic factors—things that humans are causing, which, in turn, put more stress on water resources. However, as you mentioned, there are also natural climate factors—especially shifts in rainfall distribution—that affect water availability in the MENA region.

One key issue is that climate change is making extreme weather events more frequent. For example, in the UAE, 2024 saw an exceptional rainfall event. This was only a few years after another major event in 2016. Given that the UAE’s annual precipitation averages around 100 millimeters, receiving multiples of that amount in just a few hours is highly significant.

What we’re observing isn’t necessarily an increase in overall annual rainfall but rather a rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events. This means that while some years experience torrential downpours, they are often followed by long periods of drought. This pattern is part of the broader climate shift—where the highest percentile of rare weather events is increasing.

Jacobsen: Let’s go into desalination, which is often mentioned as a solution to water scarcity. When we talk about industrial-scale desalination, what exactly does the process involve?

Temimi: In many countries within the Gulf region, desalination provides nearly 90% of freshwater for the population. This means it’s being conducted at an unprecedented scale. To meet such a high demand, large-scale desalination plants operate continuously.

The process begins with seawater intakes, which are positioned deep in the ocean to minimize issues like turbidity and pollution. The seawater is then pumped through high-pressure membranes, a process known as reverse osmosis. These membranes filter out salts and impurities, allowing freshwater to emerge on the other side. After that, the water undergoes additional treatment to remineralize it, ensuring it is safe for consumption.

To address energy consumption concerns, some Gulf nations are now experimenting with solar-powered desalination. In the UAE, for instance, solar energy is being used to power desalination plants, making the process more sustainable. Since the region has abundant sunlight and an unlimited supply of seawater, this approach significantly reduces the carbon footprint of desalination.

Additionally, some countries store excess desalinated water in underground aquifers for long-term use. This is part of their strategic water reserves, ensuring a backup supply during drought periods or water emergencies.

Jacobsen: How much energy does it take to provide freshwater for 90% of a country’s population through desalination? Also, what is the cost per liter or per gallon for this process?

Temimi: The energy requirement for desalination varies depending on the technology used. Traditional thermal desalination (which boils seawater to separate salt) is extremely energy-intensive, requiring 10–15 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per cubic meter of water. In contrast, reverse osmosis—which is now the dominant method—uses around 3–4 kWh per cubic meter.

To put that in perspective, a large desalination plant can consume hundreds of megawatts of electricity daily. In Saudi Arabia, where desalination is a major water source, the energy used for desalination accounts for about 20% of total electricity consumption.

As for cost, the price of desalinated water depends on energy costs, plant efficiency, and location. As renewable energy (such as solar power) becomes more widespread, we expect desalination costs to decrease, making it more sustainable in the long run.

To be honest, Scott, I don’t have the exact number, so I don’t want to speculate. But I know that desalination is costly. However, in the MENA region, especially in the Middle East, many countries have an abundance of oil and gas, so energy costs are relatively low.

In addition, some countries, particularly the UAE, are diversifying their energy sources. I mention the UAE frequently because I worked there for a few years, so I am familiar with some of the details. Besides oil and gas, they also invest heavily in solar energy—using concentrated solar power (CSP) and photovoltaic (PV) technology—as well as nuclear energy. The Barakah Nuclear Plant, for instance, generates significant power, some of which can support the desalination plants and ease the energy burden.

Another factor that affects desalination costs is government subsidies. In many Gulf countries, the cost of water is partially or fully subsidized, making it more affordable for consumers. However, the true cost of desalination is much higher when considering the energy input, infrastructure, and maintenance.

Additionally, the geography of water distribution increases costs. Desalination plants are typically located on the coast, at the lowest elevation, since they rely on seawater intake. However, most of the water demand is inland, at higher elevations, meaning the water must be pumped over long distances. This adds a significant energy cost to the overall process, in addition to the desalination costs themselves.

Jacobsen: What are the consequences of over-extracting groundwater?

Temimi: The immediate consequence of groundwater over-extraction is land subsidence, which happens when aquifers lose too much water too quickly. This is a problem not just in the MENA region but also in places like California, where excessive groundwater pumping has caused entire regions to sink.

Land subsidence occurs because groundwater helps support the weight of the soil. When that water is removed, the land above it collapses, leading to sinking terrain, cracked foundations, and infrastructure damage. In some cases, it can also lead to the formation of sinkholes, though subsidence is the more common issue.

Another major problem is that most aquifers in the MENA region are non-renewable. For example, in North Africa, there is a massive aquifer beneath the Sahara Desert that countries like Libya have tapped into for large-scale water projects. A well-known example is the Great Man-Made River, a huge artificial water system that pumps water from deep aquifers in southern Libya to coastal cities.

The problem with projects like this is that the water in these deep aquifers has been there for millions of years and does not naturally replenish. If extraction continues at the current rate, Libya could deplete these water reserves in just 50 years. This is an irreversible loss because once the aquifer is emptied, it cannot easily be refilled.

In coastal areas, groundwater over-extraction has another serious consequence: seawater intrusion. Normally, underground freshwater creates a natural barrier that prevents seawater from entering inland water supplies. However, when too much groundwater is pumped out, seawater seeps in, contaminating freshwater aquifers.

Once seawater intrusion occurs, reversing the damage is extremely difficult. Even if the water table rises again due to rainfall, the salts and minerals from the seawater remain in the soil and groundwater. It can take decades or even centuries for the natural balance to be restored. This issue has already affected regions in North Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and parts of South Asia.

Jacobsen: What about the socioeconomic impact? So, not looking at the geotechnical side, the amount of water extracted, or the process of extraction, but rather how it impacts ordinary people—how does water scarcity in the MENA region affect governance and society? In other words, how does the leadership of these countries respond when there is variability in water supply? Is this a major socioeconomic factor?

Temimi: Yes, water scarcity is absolutely a major socioeconomic issue. Many industrial sectors, economic activities, and daily life necessities depend heavily on water resources.

Take Tunisia, for example. The country relies significantly on tourism, particularly during the summer season, when demand is highest. However, summer also happens to be the driest time of the year. If the country does not receive sufficient rainfall in the fall and spring, people already know they are in for a difficult tourism season. This leads to water rationing, restrictions, and economic losses for hotels, resorts, and other businesses in the hospitality sector.

Beyond tourism, agriculture is among the most immediately affected sectors. When water is scarce, it directly reduces crop yields, which in turn impacts food security and export revenues. This becomes an even bigger issue when external factors compound the problem. For instance, in North Africa, when the war in Ukraine began, many countries in the region faced a shortage of wheat because they had relied heavily on Ukrainian imports. At the same time, North Africa was also experiencing a drought. The combination of these two crises exacerbated food shortages, increased inflation, and triggered public unrest.

So yes, the impact of water scarcity goes beyond just the environment—it has multi-faceted consequences for politics, economy, food security, and social stability across the region.

Jacobsen: What about regulatory changes? Are there factors related to deregulation or increased regulation that could help mitigate the effects of water scarcity, even if infrastructure is already in place? In other words, can governments implement policy solutions that make countries more resilient to fluctuating water availability?

Temimi: When facing water scarcity—especially in North Africa and the MENA region—the key factor is not just policy, but the condition of existing infrastructure. In my opinion, the most effective way to mitigate the impact of water shortages is ensuring that water infrastructure is reliable and efficient.

For example, a country needs:

• A robust water supply and distribution system that can efficiently transport water where it is needed.
• Leak-proof pipelines to minimize water loss due to evaporation or seepage into groundwater.
• Dams and reservoirs that capture and store as much rainfall and runoff as possible.
• Smart water management systems that can allocate and distribute water strategically based on need.

One key challenge is regional water transfer. If a country experiences heavy rainfall in the north but drought conditions in the south, it must have the infrastructure to move water efficiently from one region to another. This applies to east-west water distribution as well. Without flexibility in moving water across regions, shortages become far more severe.

Policies and regulations play a role, but without the proper engineering solutions, laws alone cannot fix water scarcity. Governments must invest in infrastructure development and technological advancements in water conservation, desalination, and efficiency. Otherwise, the impact of regulation will always remain limited.

And then, these policies and regulations impact different sectors of the economy, including agriculture, industry, and domestic water use. However, the effects vary depending on the country and region.

In most cases, agriculture is the largest consumer of water, often using more than industrial or domestic sectors. However, in some regions, industry can surpass agriculture in water demand, depending on economic activities. While governments can implement policies to regulate water use, demand cannot always be easily controlled.

In my opinion, good policies alone are not enough—they only work effectively if the country has the infrastructure to mitigate water shortages and scarcity. Without strong infrastructure, even well-designed water conservation policies will have limited impact.

Jacobsen: Which countries do you think are the furthest ahead in infrastructure development and technological adoption? Are there nations that, despite climate change and rainfall variability, are well-prepared for most water scarcity scenarios?

Temimi: I would say the UAE again.

The UAE is a country with very little precipitation, yet it has taken major steps to capture and store as much rainfall as possible. In addition to rainwater harvesting, the country has developed a cloud seeding program—one of the most advanced and operational in the MENA region.

For over a decade, the UAE’s cloud seeding program has deployed aircraft equipped with flares to stimulate rainfall when conditions are favorable. These pilots and meteorologists actively monitor weather forecasts, and when they detect suitable cloud formations, they fly out to seed the clouds and enhance precipitation. This program is not just experimental—it is fully operational, with dedicated teams and resources. In my opinion, this is one of the most forward-looking water management initiatives in the region.

Beyond cloud seeding, the UAE has also built a strategic water distribution network for aquifer recharge. When the country desalinates more water than it immediately needs, it pumps the excess into underground aquifers in the Western region. This provides long-term water storage, ensuring reserves are available during future droughts.

Another major infrastructure project is in Abu Dhabi, where the country has constructed a Strategic Tunnel Enhancement Program (STEP). Many major cities worldwide have wastewater treatment plants located near coastal areas. The UAE’s system is designed so that wastewater flows by gravity toward these treatment plants, where it is processed before being discharged into the sea.

Overall, the UAE has integrated a mix of advanced technologies, sustainable water management strategies, and infrastructure projects to reduce dependence on rainfall and secure water supplies for the long term. In the MENA region, they are among the most proactive in preparing for future water challenges.

In Abu Dhabi, wastewater follows a gravity-driven system, flowing toward the lowest point. However, once it reaches the city of Abu Dhabi, the water is directed back into the desert via a large underground tunnel that transports it deep into the interior. At the end of this system, there is a massive wastewater treatment plant, where the water is collected in a deep well with high-capacity pumps. These pumps bring the water back to the surface, where it undergoes treatment.

Once treated, the water is repurposed for large-scale irrigation and afforestation projects. This initiative aims to transform desert landscapes into green areas, fundamentally altering land cover. If you change the land’s color, it has wide-reaching environmental impacts, including modifying local climate conditions, reducing dust storms, and improving air quality. This strategy is a long-term effort to introduce sustainable greenery into a region that is naturally arid.

Jacobsen: What factors should North Americans consider when analyzing water scarcity in the MENA region? Some resources that are scarce in MENA may be abundant in North America, so what are the key differences they should understand?

Temimi: The reality in North America is completely different. In the MENA region, water is an extremely limited resource, but in North America, there is far greater availability. For example, the Great Lakes alone, which straddle Canada and the U.S., contain enough freshwater to sustain generations.

However, North America does face challenges that could benefit from infrastructure improvements. In the U.S., one major issue is regional water distribution. While the central U.S. has significant water availability, the western U.S.—especially California, Nevada, and Arizona—frequently experiences droughts. Instead of just building more dams, investment in large-scale water transport infrastructure could be a viable solution.

A comparison with Libya provides an interesting case study. Libya’s Great Man-Made River transports water from deep desert aquifers in the south to northern coastal cities over a 1,000-kilometer distance. The project includes man-made reservoirs in the desert to regulate water flow and break the slope of the channels.

A similar water transfer system could be considered in North America, but at an even larger scale. Indonesia offers another example—there, rainwater from the north is transported through a massive artificial canal to the southern regions. Along the way, this low-salinity rainwater mixes with high-temperature, high-salinity geothermal water, creating a natural desalination effect.

These types of regional water management projects—whether in MENA, Indonesia, or North America—offer innovative solutions that could help balance water resources between different regions.

Jacobsen: In North America, intra-regional issues such as trade tariffs have significant effects on production, resource delivery systems, and cross-border infrastructure projects. These barriers can impact how resources are distributed across Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, making large-scale developments more complex.

What are some similar intra-regional issues in the MENA region? There are more countries involved than in North America, but broadly speaking, what challenges help or hinder major infrastructure projects that could benefit all populations in the region rather than just a single country?

And while we’re at it, go ahead and solve the Israel-Palestine conflict for me.

Temimi: In the MENA region, one major intra-regional water dispute right now is the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Ethiopia is building this massive dam on the Blue Nile, which is one of the major tributaries of the Nile River. This is a major concern for Sudan and Egypt because it will significantly reduce the amount of water flowing downstream into those countries.

There is an intergovernmental committee that includes representatives from Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt to discuss the impact of the dam, but once GERD is fully operational, it will inevitably have long-term consequences on Egypt’s and Sudan’s water supply. Given how much Egypt relies on the Nile for agriculture, drinking water, and economic activity, this remains a highly sensitive geopolitical issue.

When it comes to water, it’s a matter of survival. Even if neighboring countries share a common culture, religion, or historical ties, water disputes often override these connections. For example, many countries in the MENA region are Arab and Muslim, with similar cultural and linguistic backgrounds. But when it comes to water security, national interests always take precedence.

One of the biggest challenges is that political borders do not align with hydrological borders. Many major rivers and aquifers in the MENA region cross multiple countries, leading to transboundary water disputes. Each country wants to capture and control as much of its water resources as possible, which makes it difficult to establish cooperative agreements.

Jacobsen: Good evening. Thank you for your time—I appreciate it.

Temimi: Sure. Thank you, Scott. It was a pleasure talking to you. 

Jacobsen: I hope your son is doing well. 

Temimi: Very good. Take care. Bye-bye.

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