Ask A Genius 1344: Is the Decline in Marriage and Birth Rates a Global Crisis or Just a Shift?
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/04/07
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: Is all this panic around marriage rates, the political divergence of young men and women, and lower birth and coupling rates a crisis? You’ve been talking about what you would call a coupling crisis—lower coupling, lower birthrates, the political and social divergence between men and women, growing feminist versus anti-feminist polarization, delayed relationships, and general indifference toward long-term commitments. Plus, there are high divorce rates among older adults—the so-called “gray divorce” trend, which has roughly doubled since the 1990s among those aged 50 and older. Also, there are rising STD rates among older populations—especially chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis—which the CDC has flagged in recent years. So yes, it is not just a cultural shift but a complex demographic and public health concern. So, is it worth getting upset about?
Rick Rosner: Some would say yes. Elon Musk, for instance—with his 11 known children—argues it is a significant concern. His point is that a growing economy depends on a growing population. The world has not yet adjusted to the reality that, within 20 years, most countries will face population decline.
So yes, it is an economic challenge. However, is it a crisis for the species? No. People arguing that it is are overreacting. We currently have about 8.2 billion people on Earth. We are still projected to reach around 9 to 10 billion before the global population levels off and potentially declines later in the century.
Let us say population growth drops to zero in 30 years, and in 60 years, we decline to 9.2 billion—still more people than we have now. Even if the global population drops to 6 billion in 150 years, that would still be more than we had during roughly 98% of the last 10,000 years of human civilization.
Plus, we will be surrounded by billions of AIs. We will not be short on intelligent agents. It is hard to imagine a future—near or medium-term—without billions of humans.
So, no, it is not a crisis. It is a change in conditions that we will need to adapt to. Either we accept it or devise incentives to encourage people to couple up. Some countries—Japan, for instance—are already deep into this transition. Japan’s fertility rate is around 1.3 children per woman, about 37.5% of the 2.1 replacement level needed for population stability. That is significant. It also causes major structural problems, such as straining the pension and healthcare systems.
People sometimes call Social Security a Ponzi scheme because it depends on a growing workforce. You can support the aging population by having enough young people making payroll contributions. However, the math breaks down if the population shrinks and the worker-to-retiree ratio drops.
In places like Japan, the population structure is essentially inverted. There are not enough young people to care for the elderly, so they are turning to robotic and automated solutions. This is a real issue—but not the end of humanity.
Just do the math.
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