Ask A Genius 1271: China’s Decline, Russia’s Future, and Africa’s Growth by 2050
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/02/15
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: Russia’s significant concern is being drawn into a conflict and potentially becoming increasingly dependent on China—a trend that’s observable. Russia’s population is approximately 145 million, while China experienced a population decline of nearly 1.4 million in 2024. Projections indicate that Russia’s population could decrease to around 126 million by 2050, while China’s population is expected to decline to approximately 1.313 billion by the same year.
Rosner: Exactly—about 0.1% of China’s population. Over the next 25 years, many countries outside of Africa are projected to experience population declines. How many people is China expected to lose by 2050?
Jacobsen: Considering low fertility rates and an aging population, China could see a reduction of about 113 million people by 2050.
Rosner: Even so, that would still leave China with around 1.313 billion people. Now, what about the U.S.?
Jacobsen: Projections suggest that by 2050, the U.S. population might grow by about 10%, reaching approximately 375 million people. Meanwhile, Nigeria is expected to see significant growth.
Rosner: Africa will be the only continent with a rising population. Nigeria, for example, currently has about 233 million people and could reach around 359 million by 2050—that’s remarkable.
Jacobsen: Let’s also consider the aging population. As fertility rates continue to decline, the average age will increase. However, if advancements in AI and other technologies lead to breakthroughs in aging and longevity, people might maintain vitality well into their seventies and eighties.
Rosner: Currently, most people in their eighties aren’t as sharp or spry, though there are exceptions—Harrison Ford, who is 81, for instance. Generally, most people appear more like Biden than like Ford. But if anti-aging breakthroughs occur, many could remain competent into their later years. I can’t say for sure, however.
Jacobsen: And it’s uncertain what percentage of each nation’s population would have access to such technology. Still, even if China loses about 113 million people and drops to 1.313 billion, that’s a substantial number. A declining population doesn’t necessarily mean a decline in effectiveness as a superpower, especially for large countries like India and China. For Russia, however, dropping from 145 million to about 126 million—a 13% loss—is significant, particularly compared to China’s scale. Russia’s economy is already facing challenges.
Rosner: Russia is currently among the top 11 economies. With these demographic changes, it could be overtaken by emerging economies like Nigeria. By 2050, with a population of around 126 million, Russia might rank lower economically. It will likely need to form alliances with more powerful nations.
Jacobsen: Except for its nuclear arsenal. Both the U.S. and Russia currently have roughly 1,550 deployable nuclear warheads—a curious situation for a country whose population is in decline. We were on a promising trajectory until recent years stalled arms reduction talks. Each side had over 10,000 warheads at one point, but that number has since been significantly reduced. Perhaps in the future, further arms reduction talks will be possible.
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