Ask A Genius 1255: Total Crap
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/02/02
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: I found an article in Mother Jones about AI becoming as powerful as human cognition by 2025 worth reading. The article is from 2013. The article was scaled up in search results somehow. Some parts of it could have been written ten years later. It uses Moore’s law from 2013 to predict that the number of calculations per second in the fastest computers will eventually be on par with the number performed by the human brain. However, since that article was written—more than a decade ago—the estimates for the brain’s computational capacity may have been updated, and we probably have more recent information now. But let’s assume the article from 2013 is correct and that the number of calculations in an AI system is roughly equivalent to those in the human brain. Though, AI does not operate like a human brain.
Rick Rosner: Current AI systems are fairly single-task oriented; they do not interact with the environment in a multifaceted way. Take a language model, for example. It develops small probability nodes around certain characteristics of language and thought by being fed vast amounts of data—much as a graphics AI probabilistically learns the laws of perspective and shading. For instance, understanding that an object closer to the observer will block what is behind it, or learning how human faces work, how many fingers we have, and how they bend).
A language model uses a similar mechanism to learn how sentences work and how verbs and nouns function. It may not “understand” content in the human sense. Still, we probably process language probabilistically on a localized scale—predicting which word might come next based on prior exposure (for example, if I say “the best,” you might expect “brightest” because you’ve heard that phrase many times, as in “the best and the brightest”). Our thinking might also rely on localized probability models rather than full conscious processing—similar to pseudo-thinking within a language model. The conclusion has remained unchanged for the past few years: AI is powerful but ultimately limited.
Is that reasonable?
Jacobsen: It’ll be tricky.
Rosner: Integration will mostly be solved by the systems iterating themselves until they reach a fixed point. For example, give a graphics AI a six-word instruction. It can generate a thirty-second video—or maybe even a whole short film—that may or may not make perfect sense but will relate to the six words you provided. Imagine instructing it to “show a guy haunted by guilt, the protagonist of Crime and Punishment, with his guilt taking the form of ghosts.” That AI would produce a two‑minute video of a man haunted by spectral manifestations of guilt, perhaps even depicting the crime itself, and it would do a pretty good job. That output would be something you could look at and say, “This isn’t total crap.”
Last updated May 3, 2025. These terms govern all In Sight Publishing content—past, present, and future—and supersede any prior notices. In Sight Publishing by Scott Douglas Jacobsen is licensed under a Creative Commons BY‑NC‑ND 4.0; © In Sight Publishing by Scott Douglas Jacobsen 2012–Present. All trademarks, performances, databases & branding are owned by their rights holders; no use without permission. Unauthorized copying, modification, framing or public communication is prohibited. External links are not endorsed. Cookies & tracking require consent, and data processing complies with PIPEDA & GDPR; no data from children < 13 (COPPA). Content meets WCAG 2.1 AA under the Accessible Canada Act & is preserved in open archival formats with backups. Excerpts & links require full credit & hyperlink; limited quoting under fair-dealing & fair-use. All content is informational; no liability for errors or omissions: Feedback welcome, and verified errors corrected promptly. For permissions or DMCA notices, email: scott.jacobsen2025@gmail.com. Site use is governed by BC laws; content is “as‑is,” liability limited, users indemnify us; moral, performers’ & database sui generis rights reserved.
In-Sight Publishing 