Trump’s Impact on Small Business and Regulatory Uncertainty

Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen

Publication (Outlet/Website): The Good Men Project

Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/04/02

Bob Spoerl, founder and CEO of Bear Icebox Communications, is a Chicago-based PR expert with a background in journalism. A Medill School of Journalism graduate and WTTW Fellow, he specializes in strategic communications and media relations, particularly in real estate, retail, and franchises. In an interview, Spoerl discussed the impact of Trump’s administration on small businesses, emphasizing unpredictability in tax policies, regulatory shifts, and tariffs. He highlighted challenges in compliance across global markets and the shift toward deregulation. Spoerl advised small business owners to maintain financial reserves and prepare for uncertainty in an evolving economic landscape.

Scott Douglas Jacobsen: Today, we are here with Bob Spoerl. He is the founder and CEO of Bear Icebox Communications, a Chicago-based PR firm specializing in strategic communications, media relations, and brand management. He has a background in journalism.

Hooray. He graduated from the Medill School of Journalism and was a WTTW Fellow, giving him deep insight into Chicago’s media landscape. Bob has extensive experience crafting high-impact PR campaigns, particularly in the real estate, retail, and franchise industries. His expertise in navigating media relations and brand strategy has made him a sought-after consultant for businesses looking to enhance their public presence. Is all of that correct?

Sounds great. Excellent. So, thank you for joining me today. I appreciate it.

Bob Spoerl: Thank you.

Jacobsen: How has the first season of Trump’s administration been for small businesses? For instance, is it overall good, overall bad, or are there particular industries that are acutely impacted—some struggling while others potentially flourish?

Spoerl: Yes, that’s a great question, and I like to think in nuanced terms.

The reality is that I run a micro-business. If you look at it, I am a small business, but we have ten employees. The shifts under the Trump administration swung wildly, which has been a roller-coaster ride. The best policy for a micro-business like mine is to keep your head forward and not get overwhelmed by what’s happening in the news cycle.

I will say that we do have clients in the nonprofit space who were freaking out when the federal freeze was announced—and then it wasn’t. I understand that. I empathize with them. If a large portion of your funding comes from federal grants that are suddenly at risk or potentially set to disappear, that’s a serious concern.

As a public relations firm, I can speak directly to what I do. Scott, I have interesting insight into other industries because we service a multitude of them.

For example, nonprofits have been on a roller coaster. I also have clients in the manufacturing space, and things are more nuanced there. The reality is that, with tariffs being imposed on Canada and Mexico, manufacturing in North America is now in question.

I have clients that manufacture here, but “here” is a relative term when considering where parts are sourced. So, it’s been unpredictable. What I have tried to do is not look too far into the future or attempt to predict what will happen under the Trump administration because if anything is certain, it’s unpredictable—and he likes it that way.

Jacobsen: What about the potential for tax changes under this administration? How will that impact small businesses? How can they blunt any negative effects and take advantage of any positives?

Spoerl: That’s a great question, too. There’s a law, the acronym of TCJA (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act), and I should know this because one of our clients is an accounting firm. Essentially, the tax cuts put into law are set to expire, and the expectation is that they might be renewed or extended.

Jacobsen: Again, what about on the flip side—on a consumer level—if there are potential negative tax effects from tariffs? We will see how those shape up, but there is also a sort of indirect tax on businesses due to tariffs, not just on consumers. So, while taxes might be cut at certain levels, there may be hidden costs—let’s call them “lowercase taxes”—that we might experience, whether that comes through inflation or other means.

I believe TCJA is set to sunset. As a micro-business, those impacts affect me less. Businesses in the $5 million to $25 million range will feel the effects more, but I am not quite there yet.

Jacobsen: What about regulatory uncertainty? I did a great interview with an international lawyer who specializes in big, global trade. We discussed binational relationships and what happens when, for example, a Norwegian freighter operates between Norway and the U.S. but is not under the jurisdiction of either country. The complications arising when tariffs come into play make the movement of goods and services much more difficult at a large scale. But what about the micro-level concerns you are speaking to?

Spoerl: Regulatory uncertainty is an interesting issue. We have a client in the global compliance space, and one of the intriguing things is the rollbacks we might see in the U.S. that are not happening in the U.K. or the EU.

For example, we might see rollbacks of DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) or ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) regulations in the U.S., whereas other countries maintain or strengthen those policies. You have seen it in the news—organizations like Paramount, which owns CBS, have begun rolling back their DEI policies. That is just one of many examples.

Jacobsen: And Rings of Power Season 3 got cancelled. Some are blaming it on that.

Spoerl: I wouldn’t be surprised.

But yes, regulatory uncertainty extends beyond tariffs and supply chains—though those are part of the conversation.

Another question is regulatory compliance. If this is too far into the weeds, let me know. However, when you look at third-party supply chain risk management, if certain countries are easing regulations while others are not, it creates significant challenges in tracking compliance across the supply chain. The difficulty lies in ensuring that businesses adhere to regulations when those regulations differ across jurisdictions.

That said, as we shift our regulatory perspectives, things are going to get more complicated, especially for organizations operating at a global level, dealing with trade across the EU, U.K., and other countries.

Of course, the big tenors of both Elon Musk and Donald Trump contribute to this broader discussion.

Jacobsen: On the one hand, it is chaos from men. It’s the ethic of “move fast and break things,” comes from the Silicon Valley crowd. Another way of looking at it is as a “survival of the fittest” approach to business—through deregulation, fiscal austerity, etc. This ‘chaos’ could be seen as an attempt to implement a more cutthroat business cycle. Will we see more small businesses shutting down under this pressure while the ones that survive become more competitive?

Spoerl: Interesting. I could see that environment taking shape. I’m thinking of the classic Apprentice-era Trump—that was the whole premise of the show. Creating intense competition to weed out those who are unfit to run a business. And I don’t think this is an overtly political statement—he sees the world in a win-lose framework, not a win-win. It’s a zero-sum game, in his view.

Part of these federal employee layoffs and regulations are about creating a survival-of-the-fittest environment. Tariffs could also contribute to that. I don’t know if the intention is to reduce the number of businesses, but that might be the outcome. One thing to consider, Scott, is that we might see a surge in consulting businesses as tens of thousands of former federal employees lose their jobs.

Jacobsen: That’s a good point.

Spoerl: So, how do I, as a small business, pivot with each radical change over the next few years? That’s the real question.

Jacobsen: That’s an astute point.

Spoerl: Yes, that’s reasonable. We saw a similar pattern during COVID.

I analyzed post-COVID trends, and we saw the country’s highest number of small businesses opening, largely because people who lost their jobs started consulting practices or LLCs.

We can see the same thing happening now. The real measure will be its impact on GDP and revenue numbers. But another factor is that many highly talented people are losing their jobs.

Private organizations that recognize these individuals’ values may win. These people are not necessarily losing their jobs due to a lack of ability but because they are politically misaligned with the administration.

Jacobsen: That’s an important dynamic. Internationally, this could create opportunities for questionable allies. During the, “Muslim ban”—banning people from certain countries, most of which were not implicated in 9/11, for instance—many talented individuals with H-1B visas could have been effectively pushed out. These people create entire industries because they are hardworking and brilliant. Canada picked up some of them, correct? And so, other countries could take advantage of that if people want to leave.

Spoerl: We’re not that far from seeing it happen again. Did I answer your question, Scott, before?

Jacobsen: Yes, you did. The taxes and regulatory aspects are important. Musk, early on—long before his recent remarks—spoke about the fact that, from his point of view, this would be painful in the short term, but only temporarily.

You probably recall this: the idea that deregulation, layoffs, and fiscal austerity will streamline the federal workforce, likely incorporating AI to handle tasks people used to do. In the long term, this will be better for business and accelerate the growth of the American economy relative to other economies.

Spoerl: That is the desired outcome from this administration. But we’ve never attempted it at this extreme level.

In the 1990s, I forget the exact acronym, but the Clinton administration did conduct some minor workforce reductions in an effort to balance the budget. From what I understand, there were some cutbacks, but they were not to the same degree or executed with the “rip the Band-Aid off” approach that we are seeing now.

Even here in Chicago, I read this morning that 11 government buildings are up for sale—and some people are still working in them. So the question is: where are they going to work? Are they going to be let go?

It’s not just about layoffs—they are dismantling the infrastructure of federal employment itself, which is interesting. The hope is that this allows for economic growth, but history is something we need to learn from.

I’m no historian, but some of the deregulation in the 1920s arguably contributed to the 1929 crash and ultimately created the demand for further regulation.

So again, I would be cautious about rapid cuts. As a business owner, I see incremental change as the more effective approach—because it allows for tinkering, A/B testing, and ensuring that each decision is right.

That is how I make decisions. That may be why I’m not Elon Musk.

Jacobsen: Fair point.

Spoerl: But that’s my philosophy. One thing I learned during my undergrad, before launching my business and getting into journalism, was that I was actually studying to be a priest. So, I had a lot of Jesuit influence, yes. I’ve got a lot of Jesuit spirituality still ingrained in me. One of the things I found interesting—think what you will about organized religion—is that the Jesuits do an excellent job of training people to discern and make decisions. 

Jacobsen: They are, intellectually speaking, the elite of the Catholic world.

Spoerl: Discernment is not just about quick decision-making; it’s a process. I have brought that into my business. It has worked well for me.

But again, we will see what comes of this DOGE effort to strip the government of what they perceive as bloat. Many people in the U.S. don’t realize how much of their daily lives are tied to government agencies.

For Illinois, our governor, J.B. Pritzker, has said that several million people may lose their Medicaid here in Illinois. There are so many people—those with disabilities, older people who cannot afford nursing homes—who are dependent on government programs.

People don’t fully appreciate the layers of support that government agencies provide. Anyway, I don’t want to go too far off on a tangent, but I always think about it.

Jacobsen: How should small business owners adapt their financial planning in light of this?

Spoerl: That’s a fair question.

Spoerl: Having a comfortable cash reserve—whatever that means to you—is super important. I also think it’s critical to forecast for uncertainty.

We’ve had a pipeline of leads, but my expectations tend to be more conservative. I’m seeing people hesitate to make decisions or delay our budget allocations. So, yes, being fiscally conservative in uncertain times is the way to go. I wouldn’t be too bullish right now.

Jacobsen: Thank you for your time today. It was nice to meet you, and I appreciate your taking the time.

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