Ask A Genius 1188: Voter Turnout
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2024/11/13
*Interview conducted in November, 2024.*
Rick Rosner: We could discuss early voting in the U.S. About 42 to 43 million people have already voted, with 10 days remaining before the election. That’s a solid turnout.
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: What are the numbers for past elections?
Rosner: In 2020, 101 million people voted early. In 2016, 58 million voted early. This year, we’re on track for possibly 80 to 85 million early votes, with about 5 million people voting daily. So breaking 80 million is very achievable.
Jacobsen: That’s impressive, but how does it compare to 2020?
Rosner: It’s a good turnout, though not quite as high as 2020. The 2020 election was unique because states eased voting methods due to COVID-19, making early and mail-in voting easier. Republicans lost that election and were upset by the high turnout since larger turnouts typically benefit Democrats. Republicans generally form a minority but are more reliable voters, so increased accessibility tends to favor Democrats, who may not otherwise be as diligent about voting.
Jacobsen: And Republicans have taken measures since then?
Rosner: Yes, over the past four years, they’ve implemented measures to make voting more difficult. Achieving 80 to 85 million early votes under these stricter conditions would be significant for Democrats and give them a decent shot at defeating Trump.
Jacobsen: What about the concept of “shy Trump voters”?
Rosner: In past elections, particularly 2016 and 2020, some Trump voters were hesitant to disclose their choice to pollsters, leading to underestimations. In 2016, about 15% of voters were undecided, many of whom broke for Trump. This time, only 3% are undecided. Trump outperformed the polls in 2016 and 2020 but underperformed in 2024 primaries. I suspect that more people are simply tired of his antics.
Jacobsen: Do you think this fatigue will impact his base?
Rosner: Possibly. Trump’s behavior over the past four years may discourage some Republicans and Trump-leaning independents from voting. He hasn’t introduced any new ideas, relies on falsehoods, incited a minor insurrection, and has been found liable or guilty by juries eight times in the past year. This includes five grand jury indictments, two jury findings for sexual assault liability, and one jury finding him guilty of fraud. Hardcore supporters dismiss these findings, but voters on the margins may be fatigued.
Jacobsen: If some of those voters are deterred, could that make a difference?
Rosner: Yes, even if just 5% of Trump’s supporters decide not to vote out of exhaustion, it could be pivotal. In 2020, Biden received 81 million votes, while Trump got 74 million, with Biden winning by 7 million. Ten days ago, I predicted 76 million for Harris and 71 million for Trump. I think Harris could lose 5 million votes compared to Biden due to perceptions that inflation is Biden’s fault, while Trump could lose 3 million because it’s difficult to peel away his base, even though he’s polarizing.
Jacobsen: Would a 5 million popular vote win be enough for Harris to secure the electoral vote?
Rosner: It’s uncertain. However, based on strong turnout recently, I’m revising my total voter turnout estimate upwards from 150 million (compared to 158.5 million in 2020) to possibly 152 to 153 million. Harris could pick up 60% of the additional 2 to 3 million votes I’m factoring into my projection.
I’d be delighted if she could replicate Biden’s 7 million popular vote victory. I don’t think she’s there yet, and I’m not sure she will be, but she might break a 5.5 million popular vote win. That would give her a decent shot at winning the electoral vote.
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