Ask A Genius 1557: U.S. Shutdown, Hurricane Melissa, and Renewed Nuclear Tensions

Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner

Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius

Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/10/31

What are the political, environmental, and ethical dimensions shaping recent global crises—from the U.S. shutdown to the intensifying climate disasters and revived nuclear rhetoric?

Rick Rosner discusses the ongoing U.S. federal shutdown nearing record length, explaining its implications for programs like SNAP and the potential political fallout. He reflects on Hurricane Melissa’s devastation in Jamaica and the broader climate trend of warmer oceans fueling stronger storms. Turning to international affairs, Rosner comments on Prince Andrew’s disgrace, the ultra-Orthodox protest tragedy in Israel amid deep social divisions, and J.D. Vance’s alarming advocacy for renewed nuclear testing. His critique highlights the intersection of politics, privilege, and peril, painting a picture of escalating instability shaped by inequality, misinformation, and short-term power struggles.

Scott Douglas Jacobsen: Anything in the news you want to cover before I jump into the main topic?

Rick Rosner: The shutdown, if it lasts through the weekend, will be approaching the record. The longest U.S. federal shutdown lasted 35 days, from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019. SNAP benefits don’t “run out” on a single fixed date; they’re issued monthly, and during past shutdowns the USDA used contingency funds and early issuances to keep benefits flowing for a limited time. Trump is again urging Senate Republicans to use the “nuclear option” and end the filibuster to break the impasse. 

The Senate’s cloture rule requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, making it a more deliberative body, since Republicans currently hold 53 seats. Changing or bypassing that rule would take either a majority reinterpretation (the “nuclear option”) or a budget reconciliation process. Open enrollment always puts health costs in focus this time of year. Premiums are rising: filings for 2026 show average increases of around 18–26%. If enhanced premium tax credits expire at the end of 2025, millions of ACA enrollees could see payments more than double. Employer plans are also rising, though at lower rates. Someone in the White House clearly knows this is politically risky for Trump.

Jacobsen: Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean has left many dead. Any thoughts?

Rosner: The deaths are tragic, and the devastation in Jamaica is severe. Hurricane Melissa struck Jamaica as a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of around 185 miles per hour, knocking out power to hundreds of thousands and damaging hospitals. Confirmed deaths in Jamaica are in the single digits, though the broader regional toll is higher as impacts spread to Cuba and Haiti. Regional governments and international agencies are now mobilizing aid. Warmer oceans worsen events like this—warmer sea-surface temperatures add energy that intensifies tropical cyclones, leading to heavier rainfall and stronger winds, even if total storm numbers don’t rise dramatically. That’s what I’ve got. Rotten Tomatoes.

Jacobsen: Other news: Britain’s King Charles has stripped his younger brother Andrew of his title and forced him out of his Windsor home, according to Buckingham Palace sources on Thursday. The royal family is working to distance itself from him over his links to the Jeffrey Epstein scandal. Any thoughts?

Rosner: All right. So you have Prince Andrew accused of having sex with underage girls connected to Jeffrey Epstein. He’s the only one, besides Epstein himself—who died in custody—who has faced serious public consequences so far. Epstein is dead, but besides him, the former prince, Andrew—now just Andrew Windsor—is the only man involved who’s been formally penalized. 

Even though the FBI has said that hundreds of women and girls were exploited in Epstein’s trafficking network, only Epstein, Ghislaine Maxwell, and Andrew have faced significant repercussions. Many people remain angry about the lack of accountability, particularly regarding Donald Trump, whose name has appeared in connection with Epstein, though no charges have been filed against him.

There are still the Epstein case files, which contain extensive documentation about what happened on the island and elsewhere. Some conspiracy theories have circulated, claiming that political gridlock or government shutdowns are linked to blocking their release, but there is no credible evidence to support that claim. The reality is that the complete set of unredacted materials has not been released publicly due to ongoing legal and privacy constraints.

My wife, upon hearing that Prince Andrew has been stripped of his titles, said his daughters must be furious with him because they were royalty. I don’t know whether losing his title affects his daughters’ titles, but either way, he’s disgraced. He’s been in trouble over this for years, and it’s striking that only his name has been fully exposed while many others have not. It’s deeply troubling. Rotten Tomatoes.

We could talk about the nature of the victims’ suffering. According to the FBI, there were likely hundreds of girls. Many of them are women now. Some have died—one reportedly by suicide and others from overdoses—while countless others live with lifelong trauma.

Beyond the abuse itself, some victims were pressured to recruit others, which leaves them with guilt and psychological scars on top of everything else. Epstein and his associates exploited economic vulnerability, targeting girls from less privileged backgrounds with offers of money or opportunity. In places like Palm Beach, where Epstein operated, wealth and inequality intersected in ways that made exploitation easier. These girls were coerced into bringing in others, and many now live with the burden of feeling complicit in crimes they were themselves victimized by. It’s a ruthless cycle.

Jacobsen: For women who rope other women in and know what’s happening, would they be more likely to fall on the antisocial personality scale, do you think?

Rosner: I don’t know. I can’t speak to that. I feel like they could have been all sorts of different people. There were a lot of them. You live in Palm Beach, maybe in a struggling household, and you see these wealthy people in their mansions. Then you’re offered an invitation into that world. You’re a young woman, probably chosen because you’re attractive, and maybe you start to think your looks or your willingness to please can elevate your situation—or at least give you some excitement. Going to a rich person’s island sounds glamorous until it isn’t.

I don’t know what everyone was thinking, but it went on for years. Epstein was caught, received a lenient sentence due to his connections and influence, and then continued the same behaviour after his release. He ran a hedge fund, so he had power, money, and leverage. The entire operation went on for years after that. I’ve watched documentaries on it, but even with that, I can’t speak with certainty about every detail. What’s clear is that it was an enormous web of exploitation and coercion. A lot of terrible things happened. 

Jacobsen: In other news—tragic story—a teenager has died during an ultra-Orthodox protest in Jerusalem. It was a mass ultra-Orthodox Jewish rally against military conscription that turned deadly on Thursday. A teenage boy fell to his death during the demonstration, which shut down the main entrance to the city.

Rosner: I don’t know the exact circumstances of his death, but in Israel, nearly everyone is required to serve in the military—men and women—usually around two years for men and a bit less for women. The ultra-Orthodox, however, receive religious exemptions. The ultra-Orthodox are often among the most conservative and nationalist groups in Israel and have supported the ruling coalition under Netanyahu. That coalition has led the ongoing war in Gaza, which has lasted almost two years and, according to credible humanitarian estimates, has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians.

The Israeli government’s early failures allowed Hamas’s October 2023 attack to succeed, killing about 1,200 Israelis and leading to around 250 hostages being taken, many of whom are presumed dead. Most Israelis now oppose Netanyahu and the coalition dominated by ultra-right religious parties. The anger is compounded by the fact that these groups, while encouraging a hardline military campaign, don’t serve in the military themselves.

There’s now intense public pressure to end the exemption for the ultra-Orthodox. Meanwhile, in the West Bank, right-wing settler violence against Palestinians continues, with limited condemnation or intervention from the government. So yes, tensions are high, resentment is deep, and the whole situation remains volatile. 

Jacobsen: J.D. Vance has stated that testing the U.S. nuclear arsenal is essential for national security.

Rosner: Yeah, forget that guy. He’s a terrible person—deeply hypocritical and openly transphobic. He’s married to a woman whose parents are both immigrants and who’s of a different religion, yet he routinely attacks the very groups his own family represents. He once called Trump “America’s Hitler,” but when access to power became available, he completely reversed himself.

The United States and Russia once possessed a combined total of around 30,000 nuclear warheads at the height of the Cold War. Each had roughly 7,000 at its peak, and both have reduced their stockpiles by about 75%, though not recently. For decades, U.S. presidents and Soviet or Russian leaders held ongoing nuclear arms reduction talks—but those have largely stalled.

Now, Putin has been making statements about developing faster, “unstoppable” nuclear missiles. In response, Trump and J.D. Vance have been suggesting that the U.S. resume atomic testing. Nuclear test bans aren’t absolute, but since the Partial Test Ban Treaty of 1963 and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (though not ratified by the U.S.), such tests have been severely limited. In the 1950s and early 1960s, both nations detonated massive bombs to intimidate one another.

Trump has described himself as a “president of peace.” Yet, this rhetoric about renewed nuclear testing signals a move toward another arms race—possibly in coordination with Putin—at a time already destabilized by emerging risks like artificial intelligence integration into military command systems. That’s profoundly dangerous. It’s one more disaster layered onto what may be the most reckless presidential movement in modern U.S. history.

Even if Russia develops a so-called unstoppable missile, it doesn’t mean they’ve “won.” The U.S. already possesses submarine-launched ballistic missiles that are nearly impossible to intercept. Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are also effectively unstoppable once launched. America’s missile defence system includes 44 ground-based interceptors, each with an estimated 50–60% success rate against an incoming warhead. To achieve roughly a 98% chance of destroying one missile, the U.S. would need to fire about five interceptors at it.

If a hostile power launched ten nuclear missiles, several would still likely reach their targets. A single 100-kiloton detonation—a size not uncommon in modern arsenals—could kill several hundred thousand people, two to three times the number who died in Hiroshima. Submarine-launched missiles are even harder to counter because they can be fired from near coastal waters rather than across the pole, reducing detection and response time.

So, yes, Putin can boast about a “new unstoppable” missile—but the truth is that nuclear weapons are already unstoppable. Reigniting an arms race after decades of de-escalation is catastrophic for global security. 

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