Ask A Genius 1531: U.S. Government Shutdown Sparks Economic and Political Chaos

Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner

Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius

Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/10/01

How will the U.S. government shutdown impact the economy, federal workers, and public trust in government stability?

The U.S. government is entering its 15th shutdown since 1981, halting economic reports, slowing air travel, and suspending scientific research. Rick Rosner argues Republicans welcome the shutdown as leverage for Trump to weaken government institutions, while Democrats hope it erodes Trump’s approval. The shutdown threatens jobs, federal paychecks, and market stability, with echoes of the costly 2018–2019 shutdown. Broader chaos looms as Trump pushes extreme policies, including mass firings, new tariffs, and confrontations with universities. Critics warn these maneuvers risk U.S. credit ratings, economic growth, and institutional trust, amplifying dysfunction unseen since the Civil War era.

U.S. Government Shutdown

Scott Douglas Jacobsen: The U.S. government is entering a shutdown as partisan divisions prevail in Washington. This will be the 15th shutdown since 1981. It would halt the release of the September employment report, slow air travel, and suspend scientific research.

Rick Rosner: I think the government is shut down now. In DC, they haven’t reached an agreement. Republicans like it because it gives Trump the power to break the government further. Democrats feel they need to go along because they’ve been seen as weak in the past. They think it will, as it did last time, damage Trump’s approval rating because it will harm the country and create chaos. The midterm election is 13 months away.

Jacobsen: What did you think of Pete Hegseth’s speech as Secretary of War?

Rosner: He never rose above major. He was only a platoon leader. He’s a dope and a horrible choice. He yelled at the generals. He doesn’t want any overweight generals.

Jacobsen: I watched part of it—it was something else. I’ve never heard a military person talk like that. 

Rosner: It was ridiculous. Trump is happy to have another fool in charge of the military. Take Leslie Groves, who oversaw the Manhattan Project—the development of the most powerful weapon in history. He was overweight. It didn’t stop him from being effective. General Winfield Scott served for 53 years, from the War of 1812 through the Civil War. He continued to gain weight, eventually reaching 300 pounds, at which point he was too heavy to ride a horse. Weight has never been disqualifying. Besides, the generals in the audience didn’t appear overweight. They all meet fitness standards.

My brother made it to lieutenant colonel in the Marines, and he had to meet fitness goals every year. The standards are there. Hegseth also said no superfluous decorations, no beards, no long hair. Who even has long hair in the military? Meanwhile, Hegseth himself is covered with white nationalist tattoos. He has one that covers half his chest and shoulder. 

That prevented him from being assigned to a security detail due to his unsavoury associations. There was also a sexual-assault allegation; he denied wrongdoing, but a settlement was reported. He has also faced criticism for alcohol-related issues.

Trump came in. I didn’t listen to him much, but he said he’s going to clean up the cities, starting with Portland. Portland had a peak in homicides in 2022 with 101 homicides. In the first half of 2025, they had 17.

Crime is down in Portland after what was likely a COVID-related peak. Before that spike, they averaged about 40 homicides a year. Now they’re back down to that level. Do they need to be “cleaned up” by the military? Absolutely not.

Things are messed up. I don’t know what it will be like starting with a shutdown government. Trump shut the government down for five weeks in 2018–2019 because Congress wouldn’t give him $5.7 billion to build his border wall.

It wasn’t great then. The shutdown cost the government about $11 billion. This time around, he’ll try to use it to scuttle entire agencies. Then he’ll have to be taken to court, since he won’t have the legal authority. But that hasn’t stopped him before. Things are going to be chaotic.

The stock market will probably lose a couple of percentage points tomorrow. Trump will say hundreds of thousands of people may lose their jobs. I don’t know if he has the legal right to fire them, but he’ll try. Many federal workers, including those in the military, will not receive their pay until the government reopens.

Diddy Combs

Jacobsen: Next topic. Sean “Diddy” Combs loses his bid for acquittal. Prosecutors are seeking an 11-year prison sentence. Does that seem low or fair?

Rosner: The worst charges he was acquitted of. I don’t know if those were rape or sex trafficking, but I think there were five charges in total. He was only convicted on two of the lesser ones. Does that seem appropriate? I didn’t follow the details closely.

Compare it to R. Kelly—the “closet guy” who abused underage girls. He’s been in prison for a long time because of statutory rape and abuse. I think his sentence is 20-plus years.

I’m not sure P. Diddy did things as bad as R. Kelly. From what little I know, 11 years seems reasonable. By the time he gets out, he’ll be in his 60s, and his career will be ruined.

Jacobsen: Next: Trump says the Harvard deal is closed. The university will pay approximately $500 million. That came after months of negotiations over school policies. The administration has been pressuring several prestigious universities, threatening to withhold funding over pro-Palestinian protests against Israel’s war in Gaza, over transgender policies, and over campus diversity. Any thoughts? 

Rosner: That’s just straight-up blackmail from an autocrat. It’s all nonsense. Apparently, Harvard thinks settling for half a billion is better than refusing, which could have led to a cut of two billion in research funding. So the targets of Trump have to decide what kind of damage control they’ll accept.

Whether to settle—that’s the calculation. ABC had already reached an agreement with Trump for $15 million to settle a dispute related to an interview and a lawsuit that had no merit. Fifteen million for a company owned by Disney is a pittance compared to their profits.

At this point, it’s protection money. ABC eventually stood up to Trump over Kimmel, and Trump is now threatening to sue again.

Targeting Campus Protests

Jacobsen: On a related note, Trump has been targeting pro-Palestinian campus activists for deportation. A U.S. judge ruled that targeting was unconstitutional. Judge William Young said it violated the First Amendment and chilled free speech on campuses.

The judge was appointed by Ronald Reagan. 

Rosner: That shows the problem with Trump—we’ve got almost 40 more months of him, and everybody’s settling with him, even over meritless lawsuits. Companies are doing the math, realizing they have to get through the next three years, trying to limit the damage until at least the midterms, hoping Republicans lose the House or Senate.

The House has potentially 217 signatures out of the 218 needed to force a vote on releasing the Epstein files. They would have 218 if they seated the new Democratic congresswoman from a special election. Still, Speaker Mike Johnson is refusing to do so until the House returns to session. He dismissed the House for a while. So, it’s the government. In our lifetimes, it’s never been this dysfunctional.

Probably longer. The level of dysfunction might not compare to anything since the Civil War. It’s certainly not as bad as the Civil War, but the current chaos is unprecedented in modern times. 

Jacobsen: On a positive note, Trump issued an executive order aimed at utilizing AI to enhance childhood cancer research. It provides an additional $50 million in grants, building on the National Cancer Institute’s Childhood Cancer Data Initiative, a 10-year, $500 million program. So, about a 10% increase.

Rosner: Maybe, that’s good news. But when Trump talks about AI funding, it’s hard to tell what’s real. He’ll mention corporations spending half a trillion on data centers. Corporations announce these plans to make headlines, often alongside Trump, and then quietly abandon them. So is this real? And does it compensate for the cuts in medical research funding elsewhere? I don’t know.

Jacobsen: The Justice Department has been probing the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, over claims of antisemitism on campus, protests against Israel’s assault on Gaza. 

Rosner: Anytime Trump says he’s probing antisemitism, it’s nonsense. And this is coming from me, a Jew. Pro-Palestinian protests on campus don’t automatically equal antisemitism. That’s a ridiculous conflation. But Trump will wield that cudgel to punish universities.

Trump doesn’t care about Jews or antisemitism. There are quotes from the 1980s, back when he was running casinos, saying he didn’t want Black bookkeepers, he wanted “the yarmulke people” doing his accounting. He’s an old-school racist. Nobody buys his sudden concern about antisemitism.

Apple, Google, and Meta

Jacobsen: Moving on, there’s a significant case involving Apple, Google, and Meta. A federal judge denied their request to dismiss lawsuits over casino-style gambling apps. The claim is that they promoted illegal gambling by hosting and taking commissions from these apps that addict users. Judge Edward Davila in San Jose rejected their Section 230 defence under the Communications Decency Act.

Rosner: That’s important. Gambling addiction is real, and these companies are profiting off it. Some form of regulation is needed. Gambling has become a significant problem, and it can ruin lives.

Compare it to porn. With porn, the worst that usually happens is overuse—you neglect your family, maybe spend thousands on OnlyFans. But with gambling, people can lose tens of thousands, even their homes. It’s more destructive financially.

Porn may have social costs, but gambling addiction devastates finances and families.

American Economic Growth

Jacobsen: Now, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Monday he expects U.S. economic growth to continue at about 1.5% for the rest of the year. He warned that the job market could face stress if not supported by the central bank.

And all of that becomes uncertain because Trump is talking about firing hundreds of thousands of government workers. That would spike unemployment and undercut the economy.

Rosner: This will reduce trust in the U.S. government, which could raise the interest rates we have to pay on new bonds. When the U.S. sells Treasury bonds, the rate we get is based on the U.S. being a reliable debtor. If it appears chaotic here, it may impact our credit rating.

That will eventually increase the interest we have to pay on our debt. It isn’t good all around. Additionally, the new tariffs take effect tomorrow. Trump is doing many things that are damaging the economy. It has already started to hurt, but it may worsen significantly over the next three to six months—perhaps not as drastically as COVID-19 did. Still, we’re vulnerable to a recession even without his interference.

He’s America’s worst businessman. He lost more money than any other American from 1985 through 2015. Some of those losses were strategic—his five or six bankruptcies. He would extract hundreds of millions from his businesses through salary and other compensation, then declare bankruptcy, leaving his investors with nothing.

He wants to increase tariffs by 100 percent on movies shot outside the U.S. That will hurt American movie studios, which do much of their shooting abroad because other countries have settings that the U.S. doesn’t. But 99.6 percent of the U.S. box office comes from U.S.-made movies.

It’s not like the U.S. is flooded with foreign products. Forty percent of U.S. studios’ income comes from foreign revenue. If other countries retaliate against U.S. movie products, he’s just sabotaging our own industries. He’s an idiot.

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