Ask A Genius 1483: AI Governance, Political Extremism, and U.S.–Japan Social Trends
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/08/09
In this conversation, Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner discuss the release of GPT-5, noting its improved reasoning but lack of human-level intelligence, and dismissing unverified performance claims. They explore AI governance, nuclear disarmament’s stagnation, and political extremism, including Project 2025’s controversial policy goals. The dialogue shifts to sexual and reproductive trends, comparing U.S. and Japanese virginity rates and fertility declines, with insights into incel culture and societal pessimism. Political developments include California’s gerrymandering battle with Texas, Trump’s census manipulation plans, and his reckless rhetoric about using the military against foreign drug cartels, highlighting risks to democratic norms and stability.
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: So, GPT-5 was released on August 7, 2025, and people are already debating it. While it is undeniably more intelligent and more capable than its predecessors—with deeper reasoning, better accuracy, faster responses, and the ability to handle complex tasks across domains—it is not on par with human-level intelligence. So far, there is no credible benchmark showing it solving only 62% of problems versus humans at 83%; that appears to be anecdotal or misremembered from social media.
Rick Rosner: Meanwhile, James Cameron’s point about AI shares relevance: he is concerned that, like with nuclear weapons, AI can be inherently destabilizing, especially given how fragile atomic security systems are. You can explore this more in Nuclear War by Annie Jacobson.
Geopolitically, neither the U.S. nor Russia has shown much appetite for nuclear disarmament under current leaders—Putin certainly is not stepping back, and similarly, Donald Trump has not demonstrated willingness to reduce America’s arsenal. Reagan’s arms talks with Gorbachev remain a high-water mark of rational leadership on nuclear risk.
On AI governance, the point about needing continual oversight is spot-on. All robust AI systems—especially ones approaching reasoning capabilities like GPT-5—should be regularly audited to track whether they are behaving as intended. However, yes, that is not foolproof either.
Jacobsen: Politically, today, Trump is attempting to roll back Title X protections, which provide reproductive healthcare like birth control to low-income Americans—essentially spiteful and punishing vulnerable populations.
Rosner: Project 2025 is a real initiative by the Heritage Foundation, in collaboration with former Trump officials, offering a conservative blueprint for a future administration. It includes a policy guide, personnel database, training academy, and an early-action playbook—but critics argue it is anti-democratic and seeks to curtail civil rights and social safety nets.
Some ultra-conservative voices do oppose reproductive rights, but attributing fringe attitudes like banning masturbation to Project 2025 overstates current documented positions.
Jacobsen: Onan—referring to the biblical story of the “sin of Onan”—is still a colourful metaphor for debates around sexuality and reproductive control.
Rosner: He was denying someone the chance to get pregnant. Onan was like, “Nope—my seed is going over here.” I do not know the whole story, but that is the gist.
And this Heritage Foundation extremist says that unless there is a penis entering a vagina and ejaculation occurring inside, you should not be having sex. Moreover, these people influence conservative policymaking circles right now.
I saw an article saying there have never been as many Americans under 30 who are virgins as there are now.
Jacobsen: How does that compare to Japan, which probably has the highest proportion of virgins in the developed world?
Rosner: Well, the U.S. has about 333 million people; Japan has roughly 123 million, so in raw numbers, we have more. However, per capita, Japan’s rates are higher. Their fertility rate is even lower than ours—ours is around 1.6 births per woman, and theirs is about 1.2. The replacement level is around 2.1. So Japan is at roughly 60% of the replacement rate.
Like Japan, the U.S. is seeing social trends where it is harder for people to present themselves well, meet others, and form couples. Incel culture might be more toxic here, but in both countries, many young men are opting out of dating entirely. Moreover, more women than ever before are uninterested in long-term relationships and childbearing.
The reasons vary, but pessimism about the future plays a role. Still, I think the number one factor for men is that those who are not close to being “presentable” to women often find it nearly as satisfying to focus on personal interests—playing video games, consuming pornography, and masturbating. For many, the perceived rewards of a relationship do not outweigh the effort required when these solitary activities are immediately accessible.
Jacobsen: California has escalated its redistricting fight with Texas by putting a November ballot measure to voters. It would redraw the state’s congressional map and is expected to create around five more Democratic-leaning seats, escalating a political battle with Republican-led Texas and Donald Trump.
Rosner: Gerrymandering is nothing new. The term dates back over 200 years, named for a Massachusetts district shaped like a salamander that benefited Governor Elbridge Gerry. However, it surged after the 2010 midterms with Project REDMAP, when Republicans realized that by taking over state legislatures ahead of the 2010 Census, they could control redistricting. They succeeded, seizing control of more than three-quarters of state legislatures and aggressively gerrymandering in their favour.
The Democrats have gerrymandered a few states, but the Republicans have done it far more effectively. Moreover, Texas and Trump are not even waiting for the next census. By constitutional mandate, a census is done every ten years, ending in zero, and it is supposed to count every person—citizen or not—living in each state.
Trump wants to redo a census immediately and exclude noncitizens, which would give Republicans a significant political advantage. That would contradict more than two centuries of practice and the constitutional understanding that the census counts all persons, not just citizens. I hope the Supreme Court is not so compromised that it would go along with this. It would be blatantly contrary to established law and constitutional interpretation, but we will see.
Then again, Trump says many things that are legally impossible and that no reasonable set of judges would approve. On the other hand, we have been surprised before by what judges, including the Supreme Court, have allowed.
Jacobsen: The Trump camp is now looking at the possibility of using the U.S. military against drug cartels.
Rosner: And not just U.S.-based cartels—he is talking about cartels in other countries, which would be tantamount to declaring war on those nations. It sounds like more reckless rhetoric meant to distract from other controversies, like Trump’s connection to Epstein. I do not think most policymakers would go along with it. We have an unstable figure in charge of the U.S. military authority. You cannot simply send U.S. armed forces into other countries to engage in combat, though covert actions—like CIA operations—have happened many times. However, what Trump is talking about is something else entirely, and he is not competent enough to execute it. So, it just sounds like more political noise.
Jacobsen: Alright. Talk to you tomorrow.
Rosner: Thank you. Talk tomorrow.
Jacobsen: Bye. Enjoy.
Rosner: Bye.
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