Ask A Genius 1465: P(doom) & Post-Human Futures: AI’s Existential Gamble
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/07/16
Rick Rosner explains “P(doom)”—the expert-estimated probability AI could cause human extinction—and argues technology’s transformative power may render future humans unrecognizable, as if we’d ceased to exist. He contrasts ideological fears with the smartphone’s revolution, warning that AI and emerging tech could reshape humanity beyond comprehension in the next century.
Rick Rosner: Okay, I have got one more thing, then I have to get going. So, “P(doom)” in AI—you know what that means, right? Maybe some people reading this do not. P(doom) refers to the probability, as estimated by experts, that artificial intelligence could lead to human extinction. You ask researchers in the field, “What is the chance AI wipes us out?” Moreover, they will give you a number between 0 and 1, just like a weather forecast.
If there is a 90% chance of rain tomorrow, that is a P of 0.9. P(doom) works the same way. Among experts, estimates vary widely, but a familiar ballpark figure is around 0.2—a 20% chance that AI could wipe us out.
Now, I am not claiming to know better than those experts. I am willing to accept that estimate. However, there is an associated idea that people are not discussing enough: even if AI does not kill us, it will change us. Technology already has. Think about the smartphone—it came out in 2007 or 2008. Moreover, now there are over 7 billion people in the world.
People worry about global religious or political movements. Lance, for example, is worried about Muslims. However, Islam has been around for 1,400 years and has not taken over the world. Christianity has been here for 2,000 years. Still has not. White people are under 20% of the global population. Chinese people—maybe around 20%. Nothing has taken over the world like technology has.
So we can debate P(doom), but there is another “P”: the probability that technology will change us so radically that, to people of the past, we might as well be dead. If you took the Founding Fathers and brought them to today, sure, they would be excited about some things—but horrified by others. Not just the guys in wigs. Bring women from the 1780s. Bring enslaved people. Show them today.
Moreover, once they adjusted, they might say, “Okay, this is progress, I can deal with it.” But others? Some might not be able to handle it at all. Might despair completely.
Looking ahead—over the next hundred years—AI and other emerging tech will likely change us so much that if people from today could see the people of 2150, they might say, “This is not humanity anymore. This is something else entirely.”
It could be so alien, so post-human, that we might as well be extinct in any meaningful sense.
You weirdos of the future—good luck.
Comments?
Jacobsen: Nothing off the top, man.
Rosner: Okay. I have got to get going. Thanks for your patience—and for engaging with all this heavy material.
Jacobsen: Totally. I will see you tomorrow at the same time.
Rosner: Okay, great. I will talk to you then. Thank you.
Jacobsen: Okay, thank you very much. Take care. Bye.
Rosner: You, too. Bye.
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