Ask A Genius 1430: Israel, Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions, and His Guiding Quotes
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/06/19
Rick Rosner analyzes Israel’s recent strikes on Iran, noting that Iran’s nuclear threat has lingered since the 1980s but may now be closer to reality. He highlights Israel’s geographic vulnerability and Iran’s strategic depth. Rosner also shares his favourite maxims: Occam’s Razor and “Never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity.”
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: Let’s touch quickly on Tel Aviv and Iran.
Rick Rosner: Iran has supposedly been “on the verge” of getting a nuclear weapon since the 1980s. Now, people are debating why Israel chose to target Iran recently. My assumption is simply that Israeli intelligence concluded Iran is close this time. However, people have proposed other strategic reasons, and honestly, nobody outside the key decision-makers can be sure yet.
One argument goes that even if Iran gets nukes, they would never actually use them. However, some counter that Iran’s leadership is religiously hardline and willing to entertain extreme risks. Israel, meanwhile, is only about 50 miles wide at its narrowest point. So, in theory, even a basic fission bomb — not even a modern thermonuclear bomb — could cause mass destruction and render a significant portion of Israel uninhabitable.
Iran is huge by comparison. It is at least the size of Texas — probably around 800 to 1,000 miles across. In a full nuclear exchange, Israel’s arsenal would cause catastrophic damage. However, Iran could theoretically absorb multiple nuclear strikes and still retain population and territory, assuming its leadership was willing to sacrifice tens of millions of lives to annihilate Israel.
Some extremists absolutely would. The rhetorical threat is not just for show — there are people in power who would gamble on it. There is also this recurring narrative, around since the 1980s, that Iran is perpetually “on the verge of collapse” — that if the clerical regime fell, the country would naturally Westernize overnight. I do not buy that. The regime has held on for over 40 years. Yes, Tehran in the 1970s was very Westernized — people wore miniskirts, and they lived like Parisians. But those people are elderly now, and the system did not collapse when they were younger and stronger. It is naive to think it will just topple because the West hopes for it.
Jacobsen: Quick: What is your favourite quote of all time?
Rosner: “Never attribute to malice what can be explained by stupidity.” That one and Occam’s Razor — that sums up so much of how I look at the world.
Jacobsen: Perfect. That’s a good way to wrap up. So, same time tomorrow?
Rosner: Yes, please.
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