Ask A Genius 1335: U.S. Decline, Canadian Strategy: Tariffs, Talent, and Global Shifts
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/04/05
Rick Rosner: To go back—how bad do you think things are in the U.S. right now? And, consequently, how does that affect Canada?
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: It depends partly on how far the damage spreads. You mentioned the near term—but even near-term effects can be long-lasting. For instance, tariffs are almost never short-term measures. I interviewed the authors of an 850-page book on tariffs, and they said tariffs are usually designed to be long-term policy tools.
Canada seems to understand that. The country is shifting its approach. ‘The old world order—the special relationship with the U.S.—is effectively over.’ That has been publicly acknowledged by the interim Prime Minister, Carney.
Rosner: People seem to like him a lot.
Jacobsen: He has stepped up to the moment. He strikes a balance between the conservatism of Pierre Poilievre—who speaks to legitimate concerns—and the idealism Trudeau appeared to embody, though Carney may actually embody it more authentically.
Rosner: I also read on Twitter that Carney, just weeks before the crisis, sold a large portion of U.S. Treasury bills—essentially reducing Canada’s investment in the U.S. That was seen as a very prescient move. People applauded him for it.
Jacobsen: The entire European alliance is probably watching that closely too. And on April 3, Carney publicly stated that if America will not lead, Canada will—especially in cooperation with those who share Canada’s values: international trade, cooperation, universalist ideals. He did not use all those terms exactly, but that was the framing. There could be a new Canada–Europe alliance forming around trade.
Which would make Canada a huge net winner from Trump’s policies. That’s already in motion. Canada already had a program in place to attract American talent. It hit capacity rapidly within implementation in June of 2023. The message was clear: “If you’re smart and stuck in the U.S., come be smart up here.”
Rosner: How many people were invited?
Jacobsen: I do not have the latest figures, but the interest has been enormous. I’m considering writing an article urging Canada to expand the program rapidly while the window is open. If Americans want to shoot themselves in the foot, we might as well hand them more bullets. I’m kidding, but still, seriously.
Rosner: What qualifications do applicants need?
Jacobsen: It is Canada’s Tech Talent Strategy. It launched in June 2023 as a special initiative. It allowed U.S. H-1B visa holders to apply for a three-year open work permit in Canada. Remarkably, the program reached its cap of 10,000 applicants within just one day of opening in June 2023. I think we should expand it—easily by 10x. If Canada really wants to benefit, it should poach both skilled immigrants currently in the U.S. and American citizens with talent.
Rosner: Right. Although I still hope some kind of miraculous turnaround happens in the U.S., I just do not see us getting our act together any time soon.
Jacobsen: In other words, you’re screwed. Miracles do not happen. The unlikely happens, but less often than the likely, not the impossible.
Rosner: We’re screwed for at least the short term. Something would have to shift dramatically. The midterms could change things. If Trump triggers a recession and massive inflation, he will become politically toxic. Republicans could lose both the House and the Senate. And that could reverse some of these policies—maybe even roll back some of the tariffs.
Jacobsen: Musk and Trump claim this is a short-term pain for long-term prosperity scenario.
Rosner: But we are very much in the pain phase. I do not think the prosperity phase is coming. Trump is getting hammered by both liberals and conservatives. If things get bad enough, the House could flip. Republicans only have a slim majority—something like 219 to 212. It would take just a few GOP members flipping to hand Democrats control. But even if that happens, I am not sure it would be enough. The Senate would probably need to flip too.That would mean flipping four Republican seats, since the Senate is currently 53–47. Even with the vice president breaking ties, things would have to get very bad for that to happen before 2026. It would be unprecedented.
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