Ask A Genius 1313: Guns, Government Breakdown, and the Risk of Political Violence in America
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/03/25
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: What’s your topic, Rick?
Rick Rosner: We should talk about guns.
Jacobsen:Let’s talk about guns. That’s a great idea.
Rosner: Guns, the political crisis in the United States—yes. We have a hostile government, and the NRA isn’t living up to all its bold talk. Musk keeps shutting down government agencies. He has no authority to do half of what he’s doing—taking over government information systems with his team of coders. Whether he’s legally allowed to do it? He probably isn’t. But resistance has been disorganized at best.
Trump fired the Kennedy Center board and named himself its new chair. I read about that. Culture. Arts. People have been citing the applicable law—it’s completely illegal. He can’t do that.
So, I assume Caroline Kennedy’s husband—the guy fired from running the Kennedy Center—will sue to regain his job or board position. Because what Trump did was illegal. There’s an unambiguous statute. Now, maybe Trump will claim he has the power to rewrite statutes. But what’s happening in America has never happened before.
Similar things have happened in other countries.
And we know what happened in Germany. It didn’t go well.
How often have other countries tried this kind of thing and failed? But what worries me—now that I know about it—is that there are about 250 million adult Americans who collectively own almost 470 million guns.
That’s a fuckload of guns.
That’s 1.75 guns per adult American.
Of course, they aren’t evenly distributed. Let’s do the math—250 into 470 is about 1.88 guns per adult American. It’s not evenly distributed. You’ve got liberals, conservatives, and independents. A little less than half of independent households own a gun, whether a rifle, pistol, or shotgun. A little less than 60% of conservative households own a firearm, according to a Pew Research study. For liberals, it’s a little less than 30%.
So, if you break it down, a rough estimate might be 200 million guns in conservative households, 50 million in independent households, and 100 million in liberal households. But it’s probably even more skewed than that because the more conservative you are, the more guns you’re likely to own. Some studies suggest the average gun-owning household owns eight firearms, which doesn’t align precisely with Pew’s numbers, but still—the key point is that we have a shit ton of guns.
And while they’re not evenly distributed politically, they’re widespread enough that if things escalate, if people start shooting at each other, it could turn into a nightmare.
Jacobsen: So, America is the most armed society in human history. We have nearly a billion guns—more than any country has ever had. That raises the question: Why are Americans so obsessed with guns?
Rosner: The Second Amendment, for one. However, the frontier mentality also includes the idea that self-reliance and firepower go hand in hand.
Jacobsen: The only frontier left is space, man. And cyberspace.
Rosner: Yes, but guns don’t work there. But historically, this gun culture comes from somewhere. Eight U.S. presidents have been shot and killed. Four others have been hit or shot at—either while they were president or while they were running.
Teddy Roosevelt? Shot.
Ford? Shot at—twice.
Reagan? Shot.
Trump? Shot at—and wounded, either by shrapnel or the bullet itself.
And that’s while they were president or president-adjacent. Maybe another handful—maybe five, six, or seven presidents—were shot at before they were elected.
Andrew Jackson?
John Tyler?
“Tippecanoe and Tyler Too?”
Old Hickory?
Many presidents earned their names from their exploits in war and frontier violence.
Did Harry Truman get shot in World War I?
Did Eisenhower? Not while he was a general, but maybe in World War I, before he rose to command?
Either way, almost a third of all U.S. presidents have been shot at.
This country was won at gunpoint. The American Revolution was fought with guns. The Civil War was fought with guns. The first U.S. president to be assassinated—Lincoln—was shot less than a third of the way into American history—76 years after 1776.
And the most recent presidential candidate to be shot at?
Trump. A few months ago.
So, it’s a legitimate concern that, given the current political strife, people will start getting shooty.
We already have mass shootings every few days. Depending on how you define it, we have one mass shooting per day on average. Some of these have a political component.
Every time someone shoots up a place, people want to know—was this shooter pro-Trump or pro-liberal? Because it’s a guy 98% of the time, people immediately start looking through his social media for signs of political affiliation.
So, what is the risk of political violence? What is the risk that mass shootings increase? That they become even more politically motivated? Under the current level of political stress?
That’s not paranoia.
That’s reality.
Jacobsen: It’s not a zero-percent risk. Some institutions responsible for tracking, de-escalating, and prosecuting threats are being gutted—whether by Musk or the current presidential administration. It’s a risky time for America, not only in terms of guns but also in terms of institutional stability.
Rosner: That said, we should be worried about guns, too—not that we can do anything about them, but it’s something to keep in mind.
According to a Pew Research study, 42% of U.S. households have a gun. But only 30% of Americans personally own one—meaning around 12% of people live in a home with guns but don’t own one themselves. That leaves 69% of Americans without personal gun ownership. Of that 69%, about 36% said they could see themselves owning a gun in the future, leaving roughly 33% who said they would never own one. But if you took that survey today, I’d bet that 33% has dropped to 27%—maybe lower.
More and more Americans are getting closer to three-quarters either owning a gun or considering it. Carole and I have talked about it. If we ever did get one, it would be a wimpy gun—a .22. Small, easy to handle, not much recoil. You could shoot someone, and they wouldn’t necessarily die, which has its pros and cons.
We haven’t bought one yet, but we have weapons near the door. A metal bar to hit or poke an intruder with. Maybe a stabby thing? I should check. We’ve got a longer metal bar under the bed and a baseball bat—or perhaps it’s a wooden dowel. We have two zombie bars—long stiff bars that run from the doorknob to the floor to brace the door if someone tries to kick it in.
We think about this shit. I’m thinking about it more.
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