Ask A Genius 1286: 2026 U.S. Elections, Trump’s Influence, and Global Power Shifts
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/03/02
Rick Rosner: Speaking of the future, let’s talk about 2026. Right now, the Trumpers have a trifecta—they own the Presidency, the House, and the Senate. That means they can pass a lot of shit with simple majorities.
Not everything, though. Some stuff still needs 60 votes in the Senate, and they only have 53. But they can play games and force through a lot. It’s almost a quadfecta, because MAGA also owns the Supreme Court.
Not 100%, but six conservatives. And two of them are bought-and-paid-for corrupt motherfuckers. For 2026, I analyzed a statistical scenario for the midterms, which are 21 months away.There’s a strong correlation between presidential approval and House & Senate losses in midterms.
If Trump’s approval is mid-40s, history suggests Republicans lose 30 House seats.
They only have a 3 or 4 seat majority now.
So losing 30 seats means the Dems take back the House.
The Senate, 35 seats are up.
22 are currently Republican.
That means more to lose.
The best-fit model predicts Republicans lose 6 seats, meaning Dems take the Senate too.
The odds of the Dems flipping at least one chamber? 98%, which would be huge. But they’ll try voter suppression. Some asshole in the House is already introducing a bill that makes it harder for married women who changed their last name to vote.
Jacobsen: That’s insane.
Rosner: Won’t pass, but it shows what they’re thinking. With gerrymandering, fewer than 100 seats in the House are even competitive. But still—things look good for the Dems in 2026.
Jacobsen: What do you think about the massive protests happening across the U.S.?
Rosner: They won’t change much. As long as Trump feels he has his base, and as long as Republicans think sticking with Trump is safe, he’ll keep doing whatever the fuck he wants. If Musk’s approval keeps tanking, maybe Trump cuts him loose.
But protests? Not unless they turn into general strikes. Six months from now is a political eternity.
Jacobsen: What about globally?
Rosner: The U.S. now looks like an insane, unreliable ally.
Jacobsen: Correct.
Rosner: If Zelensky is forced into a ceasefire, and Putin wins? Then this gets way worse. If Putin gets to grab 20% of Ukraine and keep it, that’s a victory. A victory of sorts. Russian leadership, Russianoligarchs—they operate on projection. If he can frame this as a win for his narrative, then it secures his hold on power in Russia.
He took Crimea and the Donbas in 2014. Now, if he fills in the gaps—I don’t know. Seems like a win to me. Then the risk becomes: Does he move to another country?
Jacobsen: One-third of Russia’s national budget is now committed to its military. If that’s the case, he might try to keep using it.
Rosner: Yes, but what would he try to grab? He doesn’t necessarily have to physically invade—he could collapse a democracy into his orbit.
Jacobsen: Yes.
Rosner: And if that happens, maybe it finally pisses off some Americans who aren’t already pissed off at Trump. Though now that I say it—maybe fucking not, because the usual suspects will argue, “It’s none of our business,” or some other bullshit apologia.
They’ll say Putin is responding to geopolitical realities or some nonsense.
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