Marketing, Predictive Analytics, and Fast-Moving Consumer Goods

Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen

Publication (Outlet/Website): The Good Men Project

Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/01/31 (Unpublished)

James McCarthy, Vice President of Marketing at RedCloud Technologies, discusses marketplace technology, AI-driven insights, and digital payments. He highlights the need for specialized fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) marketplaces, emphasizing supply chain transparency and demand prediction. AI enhances efficiency by helping brands, distributors, and retailers optimize inventory and reduce waste. Digital payments streamline transactions, but challenges remain in integrating them fully. McCarthy also addresses the 18% inventory gap and the resilience of independent retail despite e-commerce growth. RedCloud Technologies aims to leverage AI and data-driven solutions to enhance market penetration and consumer engagement through bundling strategies and predictive analytics.

Scott Douglas Jacobsen: Today, we’re here with James McCarthy. He was recently appointed—last fall- as Vice President of Marketing at RedCloud Technologies. He has extensive experience with major companies such as Microsoft and Vodafone. Thank you, Vodafone Ukraine. It is incredibly helpful for security and has the cheapest data I’ve ever had.

RedCloud Technologies announced his appointment on social media and expressed excitement about the news. Today, we’re discussing your role, focusing on the future of marketplace technology, AI-driven insights, retail distribution, the rise of digital payments, and unlocking global supply chains. So, how is marketplace technology evolving? What role does AI play in shaping that future?

James McCarthy: Before diving into AI, I’d like to address a few other key aspects regarding the future of marketplace technology in the future of marketplace technology. First, there is currently a lack of marketplaces tailored to fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), which include perishable and non-perishable products that people buy and consume daily.

Typically, B2B marketplaces are not designed for high-volume, fresh, and perishable goods. However, getting these products into the hands of retailers, who then make them available to consumers, is crucial. The first step in advancing marketplace technology is to create platforms that empower retailers, providing them with more choices to stock their shelves with the products their customers demand.

The key to the future of marketplace technology lies in building specialized marketplaces that serve the unique needs of specific groups around the world.

At RedCloud Technologies, we have identified a niche market in the independent retailer space for FMCG. Our platform enables retailers to access multiple supply options based on product, price, and sourcing flexibility. Some suppliers offer delivery with varying fees, while others provide better pricing. The goal is to give retailers the power to choose their suppliers more flexibly and efficiently.

AI’s role is closely tied to empowering brands, distributors, and retailers. AI helps independent retailers source the best products from the most suitable suppliers at the best prices, ensuring their shelves remain stocked and their customers are satisfied.

AI enables sellers to connect with new buyers, efficiently meet market demand, and optimize operations. Additionally, AI helps businesses collect and analyze trading data to anticipate market trends, reduce waste, and optimize pricing strategies by offering insights in real time.

Ultimately, AI enhances marketplace efficiency by making it easier for brands, distributors, and retailers to trade transparently and fairly. It ensures inventory arrives at the right time, place, and price so consumers can access the necessary products.

We envision this kind of marketplace, which is precisely what we’ve built for the FMCG sector.

Jacobsen: We are at the early stage of this. AI depends on big data, so the more purchases and transactions occur, the more precise the predictions will likely become. In a way, the amount of waste will be reduced—not exponentially, but significantly, at least in the early stages, over time.

McCarthy: Yes, if you look at the problem with waste, it traditionally occurs in the middle of the supply chain. The issue is often in distribution.

Brands can sometimes over-manufacture, but the distribution network often fails to understand regional demand accurately. As a result, the wrong quantities of products are shipped to the wrong locations. If the goods are durable—such as canned soup—this is less of an issue, as they can be redistributed.

However, for perishable products, which comprise a large portion of FMCG, getting the right products to the right place at the right time in the right quantities is essential to maintaining freshness. Logistically, this is difficult without precise demand forecasting from consumers and stores.

The primary driver on the issue of waste is the lack of communication within the supply chain. Companies struggle to anticipate and predict demand without proper connectivity, leading to poor decision-making.

Too many products are sent to one location while another experiences shortages, creating an inventory gap. We estimate that the global FMCG market is worth around $11 trillion, but approximately $2 trillion represents an inventory gap—where products fail to reach consumers because they are unavailable on store shelves when needed.

This is a massive problem. When supply chain inefficiencies occur, they not only lead to empty shelves but also result in products being stocked in places where they should not have been, causing waste and profitability issues.

Jacobsen: Brands are missing approximately 18% of additional potential profits because consumer demand exists, but supply chain inefficiencies prevent fulfillment.

McCarthy: Correct. It’s an estimate, of course—no one has mapped the full end-to-end process with complete accuracy—but it is likely a valid approximation.

This issue is particularly pronounced in emerging markets, where retailers tend to be smaller and more geographically dispersed. Unlike large-scale operations that manufacture and ship directly to major retailers like Walmart, these markets operate with a far more fragmented distribution network.

The inability to align supply with demand creates a significant challenge. In emerging markets, store shelves are often empty simply because deliveries do not arrive on time. Conversely, stores may stock products consumers do not want—simply because those are the only available products.

This presents a major challenge. Brands struggle to meet their full demand potential, retailers cannot access the products they need, and distributors—who operate on thin margins—must navigate complex logistical decisions while maintaining profitability.

Jacobsen: How do digital payments impact this sector?

McCarthy: Digital payments represent another friction point in the supply chain. It is crucial to create orders on a marketplace and ensure seamless payment for the right product at the right time. This enables buyers to access lending services, while distributors and brands benefit from payment guarantees and insurance. This ensures that when they deliver products, they receive payment, which has several implications.

From a retailer’s perspective, a key challenge is affordability. Many small retailers cannot purchase in large quantities to secure better pricing. Instead, they are forced to buy in small batches at higher prices. However, with digital payments and financial instruments, retailers can establish structured agreements with suppliers for a set number of weekly units. This creates more predictable commercial terms and guarantees payments for both parties.

For small independent stores, the challenge is even more fundamental. While some may accept digital payments through contactless terminals, their businesses are not necessarily digitally integrated. This creates difficulties in tracking revenue for each product sold, associating payments with supply agreements, and ultimately understanding business profitability. Managing the business efficiently becomes a significant challenge without a clear link between consumer sales and supplier costs.

Jacobsen: I see a couple of key points of contact here. One is consumer uptake and demand—ensuring the right supply is available. Another is the adoption of digital payments and their integration into the system.

These issues fall under the larger umbrella of customer or consumer engagement. How do you enhance consumer engagement with consumable goods and digital payment technology? Can these processes be integrated for optimization?

McCarthy: That’s an interesting question. We are seeing a steady increase in digital payments, even in emerging markets where cash has traditionally been dominant. Cash usage is declining significantly in most markets, and contactless transactions are becoming the norm. What do you mean by engaging consumers with products?

Jacobsen: Sure. The most obvious gap between supply and demand is the 18% inventory gap, where consumers want unavailable products on shelves. The challenge is getting the right supply to the right locations and leveraging technology to predict demand more accurately. Additionally, integrating payments into this system could further streamline the process.

The payment side is a bit trickier, but I can give a practical example. In Vancouver, we have a transit system called SkyTrain, which uses a Compass Card. To use it, you must first purchase the card, load funds onto it, and connect it to a bank account for automatic reloads.

In contrast, in Ukraine, public transit payments are much more direct. You tap your Visa card to enter it without an intermediary system like a stored-value card. After tapping, you descend into the subway via long Soviet-era escalators to reach the station.

So, different systems create varying levels of efficiency. Some require extra intermediary steps, while others provide a more seamless, bank-connected experience. There are likely ways to streamline digital payments in retail to make consumer engagement smoother and more intuitive.

McCarthy: Oh yes, that’s correct., If you look at the datasets,  based on the data we collect, our marketplace allows us to gather a significant amount of first-party information on how transactions and trade are happening.

Regarding consumer demand, we can analyze retail store throughput—how much product moves through them. We can also assess trade volume geographically for specific product categories and determine what types of products are selling and in what quantities.

This data allows us to make supply chain predictions based on factors like seasonality, helping us estimate future demand for various product categories and subcategories. Additionally, since we track which brands are being shipped, we can provide valuable insights to brand customers, helping them predict demand for their products.

However, what we do not track is the consumer point-of-sale transaction. When a customer purchases an item with a contactless card, we do not capture the sell-through data at the cash register.

Since we do not own or operate the point-of-sale (POS) systems, that part of the data remains outside our scope. However, we do know what products are being supplied to each store. Assuming that everything supplied is eventually sold, we can make informed estimates about consumer demand at a macro level.

Jacobsen: Is AI enabling more transparent and resilient supply chains?

McCarthy: Yes, it is. Primarily, AI helps sellers identify underserved market segments and discover ways to meet their needs more effectively.

Regarding resilience, AI is critical in helping the supply chain anticipate demand, ensuring that businesses can maintain sufficient stock levels to fulfill consumer needs.

Resilience is a particularly interesting challenge. It essentially means structuring supply chain operations to enable predictability, allowing businesses to plan, stock appropriately, and respond effectively to fluctuations in demand.

Let me clarify: Resilience is the outcome of predictability.

Jacobsen: What strategies should brands adopt to leverage digital platforms for better market penetration?

McCarthy: Brands need to analyze and predict consumer demand at a much more granular level—not just through supermarket chains and traditional distribution channels but also through local communities and specific consumer groups.

Rather than relying solely on tier-one distribution data, brands should strive for end-to-end visibility into how products move through the supply chain. By understanding who is buying their products at the final stage, they can gain much better insights into sales performance and demand forecasting.

Jacobsen: I’ve heard a lot about traditional retail potentially declining—things like shopping malls becoming obsolete as more consumers shift to online ordering. Is that trend having an impact on the market as well?

McCarthy: Not really. In some markets, there may be an impact, but when it comes to day-to-day consumer goods—particularly fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG)—local convenience stores, small supermarkets, and corner shops remain an integral part of the community, especially in urban areas.

You might do your weekly grocery shopping online and have it delivered, but you’re still likely to visit your local shop to pick up extra milk, bread, or other last-minute items you forgot to add to your online order.

In many countries, the relationship between independent retailers and their local communities remains very strong. This is especially true when these small retailers can stock the right products that their customers need.

Providing them access to a broader selection of brands, including leading ones, is essential to ensuring they can meet local consumer demand. This strengthens the value of independent retail at the street level.

Jacobsen: How can retailers use AI-driven insights to personalize customer experiences and drive sales?

McCarthy: One way to do this is through bundling. We’ve been working with some of our customers to recommend combinations of products that complement each other and match consumer buying habits. Bundling strategies help retailers optimize product offerings. By analyzing data on consumer behaviour, we can identify which products are frequently purchased together and recommend bundling them in-store.

This allows retailers to create promotional offers encouraging customers to buy complementary items, enhancing their shopping experience and increasing sales.

We’ve seen some strong results with this approach. It’s all data-driven, ensuring the recommendations are based on purchasing patterns.

In the future, we envision a space within our marketplace where these bundles will be automatically generated and recommended, which is exactly our direction.

Jacobsen: James, thank you for your time and the opportunity today.

McCarthy: My pleasure.

Last updated May 3, 2025. These terms govern all In Sight Publishing content—past, present, and future—and supersede any prior notices. In Sight Publishing by Scott Douglas Jacobsen is licensed under a Creative Commons BY‑NC‑ND 4.0; © In Sight Publishing by Scott Douglas Jacobsen 2012–Present. All trademarks, performances, databases & branding are owned by their rights holders; no use without permission. Unauthorized copying, modification, framing or public communication is prohibited. External links are not endorsed. Cookies & tracking require consent, and data processing complies with PIPEDA & GDPR; no data from children < 13 (COPPA). Content meets WCAG 2.1 AA under the Accessible Canada Act & is preserved in open archival formats with backups. Excerpts & links require full credit & hyperlink; limited quoting under fair-dealing & fair-use. All content is informational; no liability for errors or omissions: Feedback welcome, and verified errors corrected promptly. For permissions or DMCA notices, email: scott.jacobsen2025@gmail.com. Site use is governed by BC laws; content is “as‑is,” liability limited, users indemnify us; moral, performers’ & database sui generis rights reserved.