Ask A Genius 1243: The Speaker Mike Johnson Rick Roll Ramble
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2025/02/01
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: What is your opinion of Speaker Johnson being re-elected with a vote of 218 to 215?
Rick Rosner: I watched some of that. The Democrats were making a big deal out of the possibility that something else might happen, but it was inevitable.
He got elected on the first ballot. They just had to keep the voting open for about an hour or so. Initially, three Republicans voted against him. It took about an hour of persuasion and probably some promises to get two of them to flip back to Johnson.
It was never going to turn out any other way. Right now, it’s 219 Republicans to 215 Democrats in the House. So, even though the news was saying they could only afford to lose one Republican, they actually had enough of a margin. It was never going to flip any other way. If they had held the vote after Trump became president, their margin might have dropped to 216 to 215.
That might have been more interesting because three members of the House are expected to leave to work in Trump’s Cabinet. Their replacements will take some time to be seated. So, with a one-person margin, it still wouldn’t necessarily lead to Democrats or someone other than Johnson winning the Speaker of the House election.
But I believe the Republicans passed a rule requiring at least nine members to vote to hold a new Speaker election. They won’t be able to get those nine votes, even after the margin drops to one. The Republicans have the power, and they won’t give it up. Neither side would willingly relinquish power if they held it.
Can they pass any legislation with a margin of 216 to 215? Maybe not, and certainly not unless it’s bipartisan. For instance, if there’s a natural disaster in a state that both sides support, like somewhere other than California, they could pass a funding bill for an expensive disaster causing billions in damage.
Other legislation, like addressing immigration, is a possibility. Trump previously scuttled a bipartisan immigration bill because it wasn’t under his administration. Now that he’s president, a similar bill may come up, and he’ll support it. Democrats might go along with bipartisan legislation to get something done. They’re not as obstructive as Trump tends to be.
So, we’ll see what happens. The previous Congress was arguably the least effective in history. It had a slightly larger margin, but still not large enough to accomplish much. This Congress will have the smallest margin in history.
Jacobsen: Okay.
Rosner: Talk to you tomorrow. You won’t have to put up with me rambling like this. All right. Take care.
Jacobsen: You too.
Rosner: Bye.
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