Ask A Genius 1198: Trump’s Likely First Moves
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2024/11/13
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: What do you think Trump’s first moves will be? What do you think the people around him will do first?
Rick Rosner: There have already been reports that Trump is talking with Putin about the Ukraine war, which would be against an Act, I believe. Anyway, it’s against the law for someone who isn’t yet in office to negotiate political matters with foreign leaders.
But that’s never really stopped Trump, nor has it stopped other people before they officially took office. It’s rare for the Logan Act to be enforced. He has already appointed his chief of staff, who will be the first female chief of staff in U.S. history. Her name is Susie Wiley, a 67-year-old who was apparently instrumental during his campaign. She has stated that she plans to run a tighter ship, where not just anyone can walk in and speak with Trump.
So those are the initial moves or rumored actions. He campaigned and was elected on issues like inflation—capitalizing on public discontent with inflation under Biden—and immigration, focusing on the backlash against the surge of immigration. I don’t expect him to do much about inflation now that it’s down to about 2%, nor do I think he has any strategies to address it. However, many expect him to take credit for the current low inflation. That leaves immigration as the primary area where he’ll act.
His first actions will likely be related to immigration. When he took office for the first time, he implemented a Muslim ban. There are rumors that he might do something similar again. He’s made numerous statements about deporting undocumented immigrants, claiming he’ll remove every undocumented person—over 12 million people—which would be practically impossible due to the scale of infrastructure needed. It would require tens of thousands of additional border agents and massive prison facilities to hold people before deportation, costing hundreds of billions of dollars.
He’s also mentioned a plan to deport the “million worst” undocumented immigrants, which would still involve significant expenses and logistical challenges. This could mean individuals with criminal records, including those with minor infractions like a DUI. Under Trump’s previous administration, people were deported for offenses like driving while impaired. I assume he’ll pursue policies in that direction, but he’ll face logistical and legal obstacles.
Wth the current political landscape, it might be difficult to enact large-scale changes. He has the Senate, which the Republicans have taken back with 52 out of 100 seats. However, they don’t have the 60 seats needed to overcome filibusters. The House results are still pending, but the Republicans are expected to reclaim it, albeit with a slim majority similar to what they have now.
It’s uncertain whether he’ll be able to pass significant legislation related to mass deportations, but immigration will probably be his main focus initially. It’ll likely resemble his previous actions when he was president, as anything larger would require vast resources.
Also, he’s been talking about defunding and dismantling a range of federal agencies, such as the Department of Education and NOAA—the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the organization that provides weather forecasts.
Jacobsen: Realistically, given his history, what’s likely?
Rosner: We have to consider what might limit him. Legislatively, he’s somewhat constrained. But another limiting factor is that, despite four years as president, he still lacks significant political experience and tends to appoint extremist individuals who are also not very experienced. His lack of political acumen might limit his ability to implement drastic measures.
I’ve been thinking about that. Maybe he doesn’t aim to be a total dictator, but that feels naïve. With the current Supreme Court, he has more power to push the boundaries than any previous president, except for Biden. The Supreme Court decided that a president has a certain latitude to do things that might be deemed illegal if done by a non-president, as long as they are part of official duties. That ruling came under Biden, but Biden hasn’t used that latitude to do anything criminal. Trump, on the other hand, could leverage this power to prosecute his enemies. He’s almost certainly going to pardon himself from any federal charges.
Jack Smith’s cases against him are reportedly being dismantled, possibly because they won’t lead anywhere with Trump likely to pardon himself from federal charges. What about the state charges in New York for fraud? He’s due to be sentenced on November 26th or 27th.
I’ve heard rumors that even those might be affected. At the very least, he’ll quash any federal charges against him. He’s also said he would pardon the January 6th rioters. About 1,000 of them have been prosecuted, and while it’s unclear if he’ll pardon all 1,000, he’ll certainly pardon some. That could even be a day-one action.
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