Ask A Genius 1191: Elections, schmelections!
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2024/11/13
*Interview conducted in November, 2024.*
Rick Rosner: With four days to go until Election Day, we have early voting continuing through Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. However, many states, especially those with Republican leadership, limit early voting opportunities.
Approximately 68 million people have already voted, which suggests that 80 to 83 million ballots may be received by Election Day. Additionally, around 12 million more might be postmarked before Election Day and counted upon arrival, even if received after Election Day, as 18 states allow for this.
This means we could see up to 93 million early votes cast, which is nearly as high as the turnout during the 2020 election influenced by COVID-19, indicating strong participation. Women are outvoting men by 10%, a trend that remains consistent in most states. Although this advantage may be less significant on Election Day itself, the exact difference is uncertain. If the trend holds and considering that this advantage is often not accounted for in many polls, Harris could perform close to 1% better, which could be crucial in a tight race.
If over 90 million people vote early and day-of voting reaches 65 to 70 million, it would mean record-breaking voter participation. Even if the day-of turnout isn’t as strong, any demographic shift required to counter early voting trends would need to be even more significant given the lower number of voters on Election Day.
In swing states, where polls (despite their potential inaccuracies) indicate that women are outvoting men by 10% to 12% in five out of seven key states, this could be a hopeful sign, though not conclusive, for her chances.
Rosner: Addendum: I haven’t posted this yet, but I’m considering tweeting: Vote for the candidate who seems more appealing, followed by a humorous take on what it might be like to sleep with Trump, portraying him as a tired old man who smells like spoiled milk.
Jacobsen: What type of spoiled milk?
Rosner: Not skim milk—probably whole or 2%.
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