Ask A Genius 1185: Do Roast Jokes Work Outside of Roasts?
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2024/11/13
*Interview conducted in November, 2024.*
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: This is from Laurie Kilmartin. She said, “Roast jokes don’t work great outside of a roast.” That’s a solid observation.
Rick Rosner: And there was a comedian involved. So today was Trump’s rally at Madison Square Garden, which was full of rhetoric that many felt was hateful toward minorities and immigrants. They had a comedian named Hinch-something whose most notorious joke was about a floating island of garbage in the Atlantic, which he called Puerto Rico.
A lot of people pointed out that this was racist and hateful. Laurie Kilmartin noted that it was a roast joke, and roast jokes don’t work well at political rallies. The joke didn’t land, and it received little laughter. Moreover, people on Twitter highlighted that Pennsylvania has around 450,000 Puerto Ricans, so calling them trash is not only offensive but also foolish. New York City also has a large Puerto Rican community, so making such a statement is senseless.
People were comparing it to the infamous 1939 pro-Nazi rally at Madison Square Garden, held by the German American Bund. That rally featured swastikas and promoted the idea that one could support Hitler and still be a proud American. A giant portrait of George Washington hung over the hall at that event. But history proved within a couple of years that supporting Hitler and being American were incompatible.
Jacobsen: So, what are people hoping this time?
Rosner: The hope is that Trump’s rally alienates more people than it inspires. However, it’s challenging to draw any conclusions from early voting data, even though about 43 to 45 million people have already voted, which is a high turnout with nine days to go. This year, Trump has encouraged Republicans to vote early, unlike in 2020 when he discouraged it. In 2020, early voting trends provided clearer insights because Trump’s supporters largely abstained from voting early.
Jacobsen: Why might that change be significant?
Rosner: It could be that Trump believes an early turnout from his base will make it easier for him to claim victory, even falsely, if needed. In 2020, the initial leads in various states depended on whether early votes were counted first or last. In states where early ballots were processed first, Biden jumped out to an early lead. In other states where day-of votes were counted first, Trump initially led, but those leads diminished as early ballots—comprising about 62-63% of total votes—were counted.
Jacobsen: So, what’s different this time?
Rosner: This time, Trump and his team may think early voting will benefit them, or they may have learned from their 2020 missteps. It’s hard to say for sure, but it does make interpreting early voting data more complicated. For instance, Nevada seems problematic for Democrats, but it’s uncertain. If Republicans have already cast most of their votes early, it might not be as bad as it looks.
Jacobsen: What about Georgia?
Rosner: Georgia is promising. The early voting turnout there is already 57% of the total votes cast in 2020. While not all states are expected to match their 2020 turnout, Georgia’s numbers are significant. Additionally, women are outvoting men in early ballots by 11.5%, which bodes well for Democrats. North Carolina, on the other hand, appears to be a toss-up. The other swing states are still uncertain.
Let’s wrap it up for the night.
Jacobsen: Yes, thank you. I’ll see you tomorrow.
Rosner: Talk to you then.
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