Ask A Genius 1181: Anthony Cuthbertson’s Article
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2024/11/13
*Interview conducted in November, 2024.*
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: I have an article entitled Google’s AI Profit Fast Tracks Singularity Prediction by Anthony Cuthbertson, published on March 13, 2024. In the article, Cuthbertson reports that futurist Ray Kurzweil predicts artificial intelligence will usher in an era of hybrid humans. This prediction aligns with Kurzweil’s long-standing views. However, he now asserts that this era will begin within the next five years, specifically referring to the ability of these hybrid humans to reverse aging.
Despite this new timeline, Kurzweil maintains his original prediction of a technological singularity occurring in 2045, as stated in his 2005 forecasts. I want to focus on this accelerated five-year timeline for reversing aging. Kurzweil’s claim suggests that by 2029, humanity will have the capacity to reverse aging. This statement, however, warrants further scrutiny and clarification.
Rick Rosner: The prediction appears overly optimistic. Aubrey de Grey, with his distinctive beard, has identified seven major types of damage that must be addressed to overcome aging. These include issues like preventing mitochondrial dysfunction. This approach is part of a specific and detailed strategy, which raises my skepticism about Kurzweil’s statement, as it lacks similar specifics. I assume that, if pressed, Kurzweil might elaborate by referencing de Grey’s framework or a comparable system. However, aging is a complex process involving multiple interconnected systems. This realization is perhaps the most crucial insight, one that may have been speculative in the past.
An important point is that different systems within the body age at varying rates due to numerous factors. Aging is not a singular process but rather a multitude of concurrent ones. Fundamentally, human evolution has equipped us to live long enough to reproduce, and anything beyond that is essentially a bonus. We fall apart because our protective mechanisms are only sufficient to ensure the survival of the next generation. Therefore, anything that can fail eventually will, as our evolutionary design only pushes survival far enough to facilitate reproduction. Beyond that, we are simply waiting for one system or another to deteriorate.
When discussing systems, one could refer to organs, mitochondria, the Hayflick limit (the number of times a cell can replicate), or the accumulation of malfunctioning cells. Each represents a potential point of failure, showcasing the many pathways by which aging progresses. Thus, the question arises: what would reversing aging entail? Extending the number of cellular replications, known as surpassing the Hayflick limit, could be one part of it.
However, unlimited cell reproduction poses the risk of cancer, as uncontrolled replication is a hallmark of the disease. Reversing aging would also involve eliminating accumulated damage in the body, such as arterial plaque, heart valve calcification, and other degenerative changes. Would it mean reversing conditions like osteoporosis? Addressing these varied aspects of aging is complex but not entirely out of reach. There are some general solutions, such as extending the cellular replication limit, alongside targeted treatments for specific body parts.
While reversing aging is theoretically conceivable, achieving it involves addressing numerous specific and general challenges.
Getting the gunk out of your arteries and heart, restoring a full head of hair, and plumping the skin — I can envision some progress happening within a five-year window, but nowhere close to a level where one could definitively claim that aging has been reversed. Does that sound reasonable?
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