Ask A Genius 1155: Demoblicans and Republicrats
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2024/11/09
*Interview conducted October/November, 2024.*
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: I’ve heard commentary from Democrats suggesting that if they lose the next election, it will be the last Democratic election. I’ve also heard Elon Musk say that if the Democrats win, it will be the last Democratic election for the Republicans. So, let’s talk about it.
Rick Rosner: One thing is that Republicans, especially under Trump, have shown a huge willingness to manipulate the rules of democracy and a lack of concern for fair play. Yes, if Trump gets elected, he will likely try to manipulate things. Will he try to stay president for life? I find that unlikely, especially since he’ll be 82 when he leaves office. Any such attempt would be limited by his age and declining mental faculties. But yes, there will be abuses of democracy under Trump. Will it be the end of democracy? No, but it could lead to abuses that solidify Republican control in many states—something that started in 2010 with Project Red Map, where Republicans realized they could amass power by focusing on state elections rather than national ones. By electing state senators instead of national senators, they were able to take control of three-quarters of the state legislatures. They gerrymandered everything and got away with a lot by following this strategy. Democracy didn’t go away, but there were a lot of undemocratic results as Republicans figured out how to amass power.
On the other hand, if Democrats win, it could be the end of Republican dominance. Well, you’d hope so, because the Republicans have gotten more extreme with each election loss. Every time they lose, pundits like Karl Rove say it should teach the Republicans a lesson, and they need to seriously reexamine themselves and find ways to appeal to more people. Republicans have only won the popular vote in a presidential election once since 1988. Their policies are unpopular, but they haven’t been held accountable because of the Electoral College and gerrymandering, which still allow them to wield power even though their policies are disliked by 70-80% of Americans.
If Republicans don’t win this election, demographics will continue to make it harder for them to win in the future. The U.S. is currently about 60-61% white, depending on how you define white. In the next 20 years, whiteness will still be the largest racial group, but it will become a plurality, not a majority, which will make it more difficult for Republicans to win. If Trump loses, the MAGA movement will likely die off as people with early cognitive decline, who have been drawn into propaganda, age out. This will further reduce their political influence.
Demographically and because Republicans refuse to change their policies, which are largely controlled by billionaires who benefit from them, the Democrats, with any competence, should be able to hold the presidency for the next 16 years. Unless, of course, there are unforeseen changes in political messaging or campaigning.
Jacobsen: It’s fair within a liberal analysis, yes. It’s balanced, within that context.
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In-Sight Publishing by Scott Douglas Jacobsen is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. ©Scott Douglas Jacobsen and In-Sight Publishing 2012-Present. Unauthorized use or duplication of material without express permission from Scott Douglas Jacobsen strictly prohibited, excerpts and links must use full credit to Scott Douglas Jacobsen and In-Sight Publishing with direction to the original content.
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