Ask A Genius 1150: Pre-Election Project 2025
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2024/11/09
*Interview conducted October/November, 2024.*
Rick Rosner: So Project 2025 has been around longer than a year or two, but it had different names in the past. I’m not sure how old the Heritage Foundation is, but it’s probably 40 or 50 years old. It’s their agenda, but it’s not necessarily Trump’s agenda. Even if Trump gets elected, they won’t be able to enact all of it because Trump’s politically inept, and there will be resistance from Democrats, maybe even some Republicans. But, yes, it’s pretty extreme. Trump and Vance disavow being aligned with it, but they are.
The election—so Harris is about 3 points ahead in raw general aggregated poll numbers, which makes me nervous. I was hoping that she would be 8 points ahead by now, like Biden was by late October in 2020. One problem with her gaining much more is that we’re only at about 3% undecided voters, compared to 2016 when there were 15% undecided. So, there aren’t that many undecideds. You’d have to flip Trump voters, which is a tough thing to do because a lot of them are fanatical.
The good thing, according to Carl Allen, whom we talked with, is that with so few undecided voters in a ton of polls, Kamala Harris is close to or above 50%. So if that’s accurate, she might be winning some stuff even though her lead is not big. Carl Allen said that more important than the spread is how close you are to 50%. I’ve been looking at early voting statistics because some states report how many people have voted so far. So far, from the states that have reported, you can look at 2.4 million votes with 4 weeks to go, which is about 1.5% of everybody who will end up voting, maybe a little more.
The one heartening statistic out of all the data is that some states report voters by gender. Now, in the reporting states, the spread—don’t use the spread—here I am using the spread between female and male voters. It’s roughly 9.2%. But if you look back at the history of voting, women have outvoted men for the past 25 to 30 years. There are more women on the planet than men by a little bit. More women are registered to vote than men, and more women turn out to vote than men. So, in the 2020 election, women were 53.1% of voters, or about for every 7 men who voted, about 8 women voted.
And we won 2020. But women were also that same proportion of voters in 2016, where we lost. What I’m hoping is that women turn out to vote in this election in overwhelming numbers because a lot of women voting are gonna be voting for women. Women vote Democratic in general, but this year they have extra reason to because of Roe. So, I’m hoping by the time everything’s tabulated that women are 54 or 55% of all voters, which is possible. We’ve gotten close in past elections.
Trump continues to talk lies and trash, and it continues to make no difference among his followers. That’s about it.
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