Ask A Genius 1143: What will happen with all of the guns?
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2024/10/31
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: So, let’s get into some other issues. What’s going to happen in the U.S. with all the guns?
Rick Rosner: Right now, there are about 400 million guns in the U.S., around 250 million adult Americans, and roughly 16 million guns sold every year—more under Democratic administrations because the NRA often warns that Democrats will restrict gun rights, which rarely happens in practice.
By 2027, there could be nearly half a billion guns in America. I don’t think that’s something that can be easily resolved, except in the way we’ve discussed: making people invulnerable by developing technology that could make consciousness scannable, downloadable, and replicable, which is at least 50 years away. There’s also a common near-future science fiction trope where the U.S. could fragment into several countries—where the South secedes again, or California says “screw you” to the rest of the country. It’s a possibility for the future.
Ideally, the U.S.—along with Canada and Mexico—should come together as a united North American continent. Each country has strengths the others could benefit from.
As for Mexico, the U.S. should focus on strengthening ties with it. While Mexico has its challenges, it also has the potential to address some immigration issues at its southern border, which is only about 150 miles long, compared to the U.S.-Mexico border, which stretches 1,954 miles. If the aim is to manage immigration more effectively, focusing resources on Mexico’s southern border could be strategic.
Canada, meanwhile, has a vast amount of underexploited land, much of it sparsely populated, with approximately 90% of Canadians living within 100 miles of the U.S. border. This land could become more usable as climate change shifts environmental conditions.
If North America united as one bloc, we’d already have a foundation with trade agreements like the USMCA (formerly NAFTA). What else? We’ve been fortunate with nuclear weapons, and we’ve also been fortunate with regard to large-scale wars.
We haven’t had a world war in 79 years. Historically, we saw global conflicts approximately every 50–70 years. Some historians argue that pre-World War I conflicts were “world wars” in the sense that they involved many major powers with widespread impact.
Jacobsen: So, there’s an open question about the future: will major wars become obsolete, or are we simply lucky to have avoided them recently? Can we avoid nuclear exchanges indefinitely?
Rosner: The last and only time nuclear weapons were used in conflict was 79 years ago. Looking further ahead, the future will require many discussions over time frames and scenarios—considering what it might look like if human civilization survives or evolves with advanced technology and possible integrations with artificial intelligence.
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