Ask A Genius 1005: Further Reflections on the Biden-Trump Presidential Debate
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2024/07/07
Rick Rosner, American Comedy Writer, www.rickrosner.org
Scott Douglas Jacobsen, Independent Journalist, www.in-sightpublishing.com
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: What are your updated thoughts on Biden a week or so after the debate?
Rick Rosner: This evening, he participated in an interview with George Stephanopoulos on ABC. I only watched a few minutes of it. Biden asserts that he is not withdrawing from the race. He claims a record of achievement and expresses a desire to accomplish more. There is a generalized panic, though it’s unclear if it stems from the majority of Democrats. Naturally, the Republicans are pleased. There is an extreme right-wing pundit, a self-proclaimed journalist named Laura, who has been banned from various social media platforms and from Uber and Lyft due to her erratic behavior. However, the right-wing audience listens to her, and she tweeted that Biden had a medical emergency on board Air Force One, which began trending on Twitter. This claim is entirely fabricated by a delusional individual, yet it did not prevent the trend. Many people responded with, “fuck you, Laura Loomer,” but that didn’t stop it from trending. It’s difficult to ascertain Biden’s level of support.
I did watch it. If Biden had spoken this way during the debate, he likely would have won the post-debate polls against Trump. His speech was not entirely fluid, but it hasn’t been. He speaks deliberately, with pauses, and occasionally corrects a word, but nothing egregious as far as I could tell. I’ll need to check Twitter again. However, he can articulate complete sentences and sequences of sentences, make his points, and list them. He managed to do that in the debate as well. He frequently used “first” followed by a point, “second,” and then another point. He did that multiple times. It’s not that he lacks facts; his speaking is just not smooth. It was better tonight than during the debate.
His speech was largely smooth because he’s not constrained by the truth. He can just spout whatever comes to mind. During the debate, Trump didn’t give a single answer free of lies. Every one of his responses contained falsehoods. Four Democratic members of Congress out of about 215 have suggested that Biden should withdraw. A Senator has also said Biden should withdraw. There are pundits and journalists who agree, but many others are saying, “fuck you, I’m sticking with Biden.” There are risks associated with keeping Biden, given that his poll numbers have dropped after the debate. It’s uncertain whether strong public performances can revive his standing.
If you look at the Vegas odds, Trump is favored at least two to one, more likely three to one, over Biden at this point. But Biden’s odds fluctuate from plus 550, where you bet one dollar and get more than five dollars, to 350, then 250, and now they’re at plus 400. You bet one dollar, you get five dollars back, which equates to a 20% chance of winning. So it’s risky to stick with Biden.
However, it’s equally risky to switch to Kamala Harris, whose odds of winning are about the same as Biden’s. It’s still too early to determine the best course of action or what I prefer. Additionally, new Epstein evidence has surfaced, revealing that Trump had more interactions with Epstein, the pedophile pimp. Trump visited Epstein Island multiple times. A woman sued Trump with witnesses to some interactions between her, Trump, and Epstein. She alleges that Trump raped her and engaged in other sexual activities with her when she was 13 and that she saw girls as young as 12 having sexual contact with Trump. Her sworn legal statements are now public.
Trump supporters claim she dropped her lawsuit, but it was known at the time that she did so due to death threats. So, this information is now public. Will any of it matter? Trump continues to make all sorts of statements. While he hasn’t explicitly said he will murder people, he has implied things along those lines. It’s troubling. It’s difficult to know what to do. I tend to think that Biden will not be able to continue and will have to withdraw eventually, but it’s still too early to say. It’s been just over a week since the debate. The Democratic National Convention is not until the end of August. If a change is to be made at the convention, it gives everyone a few more weeks to determine whether the best strategy to beat Trump is to stick with Biden or switch to Kamala Harris. The Democrats would be foolish to choose anyone other than Harris because she’s the VP, she’s Black and Asian, she champions reproductive rights, and they would lose a significant number of votes by selecting anyone else. She polls stronger than any other potential replacement.
I attended a 4th of July party yesterday and spoke with a prominent Democratic politician. Obama’s campaign staff was highly effective; they secured his election twice against substantial odds. I asked if Biden’s campaign staff was less competent than Obama’s, and she confirmed. She explained that after his second election, Obama allowed the campaign staff to disperse. She emphasized that a successful political party keeps its campaign personnel together, providing them with tasks to prepare for the next election.
However, Biden apparently allowed everyone to go their own way. This decision negatively impacted Hillary in 2016 and might be detrimental to Biden now. This exceptional campaign team and infrastructure were left to deteriorate. We don’t know much about Biden’s campaign team, and there isn’t much information available. It seems they might be underperforming. So, that’s all I know. I know less than I thought. What are your thoughts?
Jacobsen: The Democrats are in a difficult situation. It seems likely that Trump will secure another term.
Rosner: Yes, I find that incredibly frustrating. I can’t believe America elected him once knowing he was a problematic figure, and now we are even more aware of his shortcomings.
Jacobsen: What about the Supreme Court’s stance on presidential immunity and other related issues?
Rosner: There are two justices, Alito and Thomas, who are blatantly corrupt. They will support whatever Trump tries to present to the court, within reason. However, there are four other conservative justices and three liberal justices. I believe that on issues of maintaining democracy and preventing dictatorship, the four conservative justices would join the liberals to overrule the corrupt justices.
In closer cases, like in 2020, when the Democrats and Republicans went to court over ballots, and Bush won over Gore in Florida by a few hundred votes, the evidence showed that the ballots were flawed. Many Jewish people mistakenly voted for Pat Buchanan due to the ballot layout. It was a two-page ballot held together by rings, like a spiral notebook, and the sides didn’t align correctly. This caused confusion, especially among older voters. Buchanan received votes intended for Gore. Additionally, issues with hanging chads affected the count. The Republicans took the case to the Supreme Court, arguing that continuing the recount was unconstitutional. The five conservative justices ruled to stop the recount, handing the presidency to Bush. The Democrats, aiming to maintain a fair and gentlemanly image, conceded. It’s not as precarious as a completely corrupt Supreme Court just making up reasons or buying ridiculous bullshit from Trump, but they could buy plausible bullshit.
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