Ask A Genius 992: Update on America’s Grumpier Old Men Sequel
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2024/07/01
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: Any updates on the debate front?
Rick Rosner: Yesterday, there was some talk that it might have been due to cold medicine. People are unsure, but there hasn’t been any confirmation from the Biden camp. Today, however, they had a meeting to discuss the future course of action, according to reports. It’s being reported that he might be most energetic between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. As the day progresses, he becomes less energetic and tends to ramble. Consequently, they try to schedule events for him during his peak hours. However, interest in the matter seems to be waning.
People have already formed their opinions. One camp believes that despite Biden getting tired at night, he’s still preferable to Trump. The other camp staunchly supports Trump regardless of his flaws. Then, there is a smaller group that thinks it might be time to replace Biden. That perspective likely has fewer supporters compared to those who believe Biden has done a good job over the past three and a half years. We haven’t seen many polls to determine how the debate affected him. The situation is unfortunate because the debate certainly didn’t help him.
Jacobsen: Do you think people shifted their votes away from Biden because of that debate?
Rosner: It’s difficult to say because most people have probably already decided; perhaps two-thirds are firmly in one camp or the other. Out of the 50 million people who watched, let’s estimate there are around 16 million undecided voters. A flash poll indicated that 80% of voters are not changing their minds. However, who trusts polls anyway? It’s possible the debate could have cost him around 1.5 million votes, which is significant, though the margins in 2016 and 2020 were 2.85 million and 7 million, respectively. It’s unlikely it cost Biden that many votes.
What will significantly impact the Democrats is the ongoing discussion about whether to replace Biden. It shows a lack of confidence in his leadership, which is damaging. Trump, despite his flaws, remains a weak candidate. However, the Democrats seem ineffective at campaigning this time around, unlike during Obama’s campaigns. Some people, myself included, believe that certain campaign staff members should be replaced due to a lack of brilliance.
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