Ask A Genius 964: South Korea and Its Reproductive Emergency
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2024/06/21
Rick Rosner: Is this a new one?
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: Yes, it is a new one. Alright, so you sent me an article about the average number of children per woman in South Korea dropping to 0.72, whereas the replacement rate is approximately 2.1. That means one replacement child for every couple, plus a bit more to account for those who do not have children.
Rosner: And possibly a slight reduction for immigration. But anyway, the president of South Korea mentioned that they are in a birth crisis. South Korea currently has the lowest birth rate in the world if one considers a low birth rate problematic. However, many countries, about a quarter of the world’s nations, have declining populations. How is Canada doing in this regard?
Jacobsen: Canada is below the replacement rate, but we have significant immigration, which helps bridge the gap. So yes, the South Korean president, Yoon Suk Yeol, has declared a demographic national emergency due to the low birth rate and the aging population.
Rosner: This poses a problem for the aging population. Wherever this occurs, it is an issue because there are fewer people to care for the elderly. Additionally, Social Security and Medicare-type systems rely on having more individuals paying into the system than those withdrawing from it. For example, in the United States, when Social Security began in the 1930s, there were approximately 16 workers contributing for every beneficiary. Now, that ratio has decreased to about three to one. So, it becomes a structural problem when birth rates decline. Moreover, it becomes an issue because our economies are built on population growth, generating more workers and consumers. The world has yet to master building economies around steady or declining populations, correct? Is that a reasonable assertion?
Jacobsen: That is reasonable.
Rosner: Okay, very reasonable. However, on the other hand, the human population cannot continue to grow indefinitely. Assuming advancements in technology, perhaps the human population could sustain growth, but considering our current circumstances, it does not seem like a wise idea. The carbon footprint per capita in the United States, I believe, declines by about 1% annually due to technological advancements and perhaps because we are not traveling as much thanks to telecommuting and streaming entertainment. While this provides some relief in addressing climate change and other pressures on the planet, an even greater benefit would be a declining population, which is projected to begin in the 2060s. So, we will eventually have more humans than we have now. And so, we will experience a declining human population sometime in the second half of the 21st century. We will likely have technology to mitigate some effects of climate change by then, but it is uncertain how many species or how much coastline we will lose. Rather than facing a semi-apocalyptic scenario, if the global population declines by 2070, I hope this will help us avoid further significant damage to the planet. There are measures we can take. Somewhat straightforward measures to combat climate change include building sea walls for low-lying areas. A more controversial approach is to disperse light-absorbing substances into the atmosphere. However, determining the appropriate substances and locations is challenging, and this method does not address ocean acidification. The consequences could be severe if The oceans become less capable of sustaining life. Therefore, a declining population might be the primary solution to prevent further harm to the planet. What are your thoughts?
Jacobsen: That is a valid point. I am contemplating the broader timeline of renewable technologies. At what point will resistance to renewable technologies collapse the 20th-century energy systems—oil, coal, and gas—in favor of renewables?
Rosner: Well, coal is largely obsolete at this point, at least in the United States. While there are still some coal-powered power plants, I am unsure of the exact number, but there are only 50,000 coal miners left in the U.S. Anyone advocating for coal miners is disingenuous, as it would not require much funding to retrain or retire them. It is a small group, roughly 49,000 men and 1,000 women. Transitioning to nuclear power would be beneficial. There are two main issues with nuclear energy: ensuring safety, including waste disposal, and convincing the public of its safety. Currently, nuclear power is likely safer than public perception. Nuclear energy is advantageous because it requires minimal space. Solar energy occupies significant space, and wind power requires numerous large turbines that can harm birds and are quite costly. Nuclear energy is compact. I have read, though not recently and possibly inaccurately, that modern reactors produce less waste because waste is highly hazardous. In a nuclear war book I read, when North Korea initiates global chaos, they launch only two missiles, which trigger—spoiler alert—a full-scale nuclear exchange between the United States and Russia. One target is the Diablo Canyon power plant, approximately 160 miles north of me in California. According to the book, in addition to destroying the active reactors, which would release significant radiation, there are 2,500 spent fuel rods stored there, exacerbating the destruction if targeted by a nuke.
Jacobsen: We have previously discussed the causes. We need not revisit the causes of declining populations, as we have done so in two or three sessions and identified about ten potential reasons for decreased coupling. We might discuss why South Korea is more affected compared to regions like Africa.
Rosner: According to demographers, Africa will be the last region to experience population growth. It is part of the K-curve, where Africa has been the last to exit the high infant mortality phase. In regions where the survival rate to adulthood is 50-50, families tend to have five, six, or even eight children to ensure some survive to adulthood. Africa has most recently transitioned from that state. But only recently. I am uncertain about East Asian countries—did they transition out of that state the earliest? Are they the most inundated with distracting entertainment? Are they accustomed to handling sexual needs through self-gratification?
Jacobsen: Japan has a significant porn culture.
Rosner: Could that contribute to declining birth rates? I am uncertain. Any comments?
Jacobsen: That is a good point.
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