Ask A Genius 949: Annie Jacobsen, an author
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2024/06/17
Rick Rosner: She has spoken to individuals who worked on nuclear weapons as far back as the Manhattan Project and who were involved in developing nuclear strategies during the Strategic Air Command era in the 1950s. The risk we are under is truly alarming. The book has a spoiler alert if you intend to interview her , so you should probably read it.
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: I want to point out to everyone listening or reading this that I emailed her requesting an interview based on Rick’s recommendation. I am uncertain who I will interview, even if they share the same name.
Rosner: The book describes a horrifying chain of events that could unfold if North Korea were to launch a single nuclear missile at the US. One of the most appalling aspects is that if the US responds to a nuclear attack from North Korea or any other nation by launching our missiles, those missiles would have to pass over Russian airspace. Due to Russian technology’s limitations in detecting ballistic missiles once their booster phase has ended, Russia might not be able to discern whether the missiles passing overhead are aimed at them or North Korea. This could lead to Russia mistakenly believing they are under nuclear attack. Although communication between the US President and Russia’s President could alleviate this situation, it is not always guaranteed. Many Americans mistakenly believe that we have a ‘red phone’ system where the President can immediately contact the Russian President. This is not true. The book recounted an incident where it took over 24 hours to establish communication with the Russian President.
Jacobsen: That’s way too late.
Rosner: According to the book, once a missile is detected in flight, the President has a mere six-minute window to launch a response before the missile impacts. Most presidents and this likely applies to Trump if he is reelected, may not fully grasp this timeframe. While Biden, with his extensive national political experience and chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, might have a better understanding, it is not something to be relied upon. The President needs to be briefed and make a decision that could lead to the deaths of hundreds of millions of people within just six minutes. It’s a terrifying prospect. Meanwhile, the President would be rushed onto Marine One to be flown away from Washington DC before a missile impact. The entire situation is insane. Another shocking fact is the sheer number of nuclear warheads the US once possessed. My initial guess was 30,000, but I revised it down. However, the exchange of just 200 nuclear missiles between Russia and the US would devastate both nations’ infrastructures and kill hundreds of millions, plunging both countries into years of savagery. At their peak, Russia and America had close to 60,000 warheads. The US has 1,750 ready to deploy, and Russia has 1,650, with several thousand more in reserve. Even this is 20 to 50 times more than necessary to devastate the Northern Hemisphere. The book also discusses how this vast arsenal serves as a deterrent, discouraging any nation from initiating a nuclear war due to the assured retaliation. However, the book explores what happens to deterrence once the missiles are launched. It almost works oppositely. Once a few missiles are airborne, there is an impulse to launch all remaining missiles before they are rendered useless. It’s a flawed system, susceptible to mistakes. In 1983, for instance, a flock of birds was mistaken for a swarm of incoming missiles. A Russian lieutenant colonel saved the world by trusting his gut feeling and not reporting the supposed attack up the chain of command, preventing a nuclear exchange caused by a technological glitch or misinterpretation. However, relying on such gut feelings is not a sustainable strategy. While involving AI might seem like a solution, we don’t yet know how to make detection and deterrence more reliable with AI. AI reflects a distillation of collective human thoughts, which may not be ideal for managing such critical decisions. Many Americans believe the risk has decreased since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, but this is not the case. The world has not become any safer.
Jacobsen: According to ICANN (the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons), which won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017, the ranking of countries by the number of nuclear warheads is as follows: Russia, the United States, China, France, The United Kingdom, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.
Rosner: So now, I guess, a total of 10,000 warheads among the nine nuclear nations?
Jacobsen: The numbers are: Russia 5,889.
Rosner: Yes, although not all of those are ready to deploy.
Jacobsen: The United States has 5,224, China 410, France 290, the United Kingdom 225, Pakistan 170, India 164, Israel 90, North Korea 30.
Rosner: So while the US and Russia each have thousands of warheads, many are not ready for immediate launch. Even with Russia’s and the US’s ready-to-go stockpiles of 1,750 and 1,650, respectively, the outcome of their use would be catastrophic. The difference between 1,750 and 5,224 is negligible unless faced with an unlikely scenario such as an alien invasion.
Jacobsen: What about the bombs used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki?
Rosner: Yes, those were fission bombs, likely uranium or plutonium. However, hydrogen bombs, which use fusion, can have unlimited explosive power. A fusion bomb surrounds an atomic bomb, using uranium or plutonium to ignite hydrogen and deuterium (a form of hydrogen). Theoretically, you could create a 100-megaton hydrogen bomb capable of obliterating a 10-mile-wide island. They have obliterated smaller islands with such bombs.
License
In-Sight Publishing by Scott Douglas Jacobsen is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. Based on a work at www.in-sightpublishing.com.
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