Ask A Genius 687: Covid and Longevity, and Health
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2022/01/15
[Recording Start]
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: How do you value health and longevity, particularly in the context of the current pandemic?
Rick Rosner: Well, my wife works at a private school in LA County, and the situation here illustrates the complex valuation of health and longevity. Currently, about one in every 225 people in LA County is testing positive for Covid daily. With a population of 10 million, this means around 40,000 people are getting positive test results. This figure doesn’t include asymptomatic individuals who haven’t been tested. I estimate that approximately one in 30 people in LA County might currently have Covid. Schools are still open, despite these high numbers. In LA public schools, about one in six individuals tested for Covid receives a positive result, which is significantly higher than the level considered somewhat safe for conducting in-person classes.
In states like Florida, where Governor Ronald Dion DeSantis promotes minimal Covid restrictions, the situation is even more relaxed and potentially more dangerous. This contrast between states like California and Florida demonstrates the varying degrees of value placed on health and life versus maintaining normalcy. In instances like 9/11 or transportation accidents, monetary values are often assigned to lives lost based on potential earnings, which is a well-established yet sobering practice.
Nearly two years into the pandemic, people’s attitudes towards health risks and precautionary measures are changing. Many are growing tired of the restrictions and are increasingly willing to take risks, indicating a shift in how they value normalcy over potential health consequences. This change in risk tolerance is influenced by political views and wishful thinking about the virus, especially with the emergence of the Omicron variant, which is believed to cause milder symptoms.
School closures are a prime example of this conflict. Despite the high risk of Covid transmission, there’s significant resistance to closing schools or shifting to remote learning, even for a short period. In a cautious state like California, the reluctance to temporarily disrupt education for the sake of health safety is perplexing. People are prioritizing the continuity of education over the potential health risks posed by the virus, reflecting a complex and evolving valuation of health and longevity in the face of Covid-19.
Everybody is aware of the long-term symptoms of Covid, such as lingering health issues that can last for months or even years after infection. However, this aspect has not been fully integrated into the American public’s risk assessment. Many people think the risk of death from Covid is about one percent, and they tend to dismiss this as low, especially if they are under 65. The reality is that a one percent risk is quite significant. For example, most people would not consider playing Russian roulette with a gun that has one bullet in a hundred chambers, as it would be perceived as extremely dangerous. Yet, when it comes to Covid, a one percent risk is often trivialized.
Consider a hypothetical situation where someone is offered a quarter of a million dollars but faces a one in a hundred chance of dying, symbolized by that same gun with one bullet in a hundred chambers. Most people would decline such an offer, indicating that a one percent risk is actually quite high. Despite this, long-term Covid symptoms are often overlooked or ignored, even though they can affect up to 40 percent of those who contract the virus. There hasn’t been enough emphasis on these long-term effects, and as a result, they don’t seem to weigh heavily on people’s minds.
After two years of the pandemic, wishful thinking seems to be increasing. In the last three days alone, there have been about 10 million new confirmed Covid cases worldwide, which equals the total number of cases reported in the first five months of the pandemic. The rate of infection is at its highest, with some areas seeing two to three percent of the population currently infected, a rate possibly five times higher than at any previous point during the pandemic. Yet, despite these alarming statistics, the general attitude towards the virus seems more relaxed than ever, making for a particularly challenging and paradoxical situation.
[Recording End]
License
In-Sight Publishing by Scott Douglas Jacobsen is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. Based on a work at www.in-sightpublishing.com.
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