Ask A Genius 676: Omicron and January 11th, One Year
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2022/01/11
[Recording Start]
Rick Rosner: Today, January 11th, 2022, marks a significant moment in the ongoing Covid pandemic. Just over a year ago, on January 8th, 2021, we witnessed the peak of a massive winter wave of Covid cases, both in the US and globally. This wave was the deadliest yet. In the US, the situation was exacerbated by then-President Trump’s inaction and his engagement in activities like super spreader rallies, which likely increased the caseload significantly. This period from November to February was marked by an intense surge in cases.
Currently, we’re facing what might be the worst day for new Covid cases worldwide, potentially surpassing the previous record of 2,789,000 new cases set four days ago. The total count for today is already at approximately 2,785,000, and it’s expected to rise. However, there’s a glimmer of hope that we are nearing the peak, similar to last year’s pattern. The factors contributing to this peak include colder weather driving people indoors, back-to-school events, and gatherings during the holiday season. As these events wind down, we might see a subsidence in case numbers, as is already happening in places like England and South Africa. Yet, the situation varies globally, with countries like France and Italy still reporting high numbers of new cases. In the US, it’s too early to predict a clear trend, but I am cautiously optimistic that by the end of February, the numbers will have significantly declined.
Omicron, despite causing a record number of infections, hasn’t led to a proportionate increase in deaths. The death rate has been relatively stable, averaging between 4,000 and 8,000 daily worldwide since August. Deaths usually peak about two weeks after new cases, but Omicron’s lower fatality rate compared to last year’s winter wave is a positive sign. However, we haven’t seen a day with fewer than 4,000 global Covid deaths since April 2020. My hope is that by March, we’ll begin to see days with fewer deaths. The vaccination effort is also progressing, with over 9.4 billion doses administered globally. Approximately 55% of the world’s population is double vaccinated, and many countries are actively boosting their populations. With the widespread impact of Omicron and the steady vaccination rate, I’m cautiously hopeful that the Omicron wave might be the last significant surge of the pandemic.
[Recording End]
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