Ask A Genius 660: Omicron Don Juan
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2022/01/01
[Recording Start]
Rick Rosner: Alright, let’s talk about Omicron. It’s way more contagious than the Delta variant, which itself was more contagious than any previous variant. Despite high vaccination rates, like in England where over 90% of those eligible have had at least one dose, they’re still seeing record-breaking numbers of new cases. As of January 1st, 2022, England, for instance, is experiencing the highest daily new case numbers in their history, with figures like 189,000 cases per day in a country of 66 million people. This suggests that a significant portion of the population is currently positive for Omicron.
Now, what makes people somewhat optimistic is that daily deaths in England are currently about 1/1000th of the daily new cases. Similar patterns are seen in other countries where Omicron is surging, like South Africa, France, and Italy. This gives hope that Omicron may not be as lethal as previous variants. However, we need to remember that deaths are a lagging indicator, so the true impact on mortality from the current surge is yet to be seen.
Globally, the number of cases has been shattering records. Just two days ago, the world doubled its previous record for most new cases in a day. This increase is staggering, and we might even see these numbers triple.
Despite the alarming rise in cases, there’s a noticeable fatigue and defiance toward COVID-19. For example, large events are still happening in the US with minimal masking, and New Year’s celebrations went ahead, albeit with some restrictions.
So far, COVID-19 has killed about a quarter of the number of people who died in World War II and maybe a third to a quarter of those who died from the Spanish flu. With over 9.2 billion vaccine doses administered globally, we hoped to be closer to achieving herd immunity, but Omicron is challenging that.
Regarding Omicron’s pronunciation, some people prefer ‘AH-muh-kraan,’ but, well, I’m not too fussed about that.
If Omicron’s cases keep spiking and don’t decline sharply, COVID-19 could become the deadliest event since World War II. However, in terms of percentage mortality, it’s less deadly than both World War II and the Spanish flu, considering the global population has more than doubled since then. But with Omicron’s spread, we could see a significant increase in the total number of cases and, potentially, deaths. It’s going to be a tense few weeks, maybe longer.
[Recording End]
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