Ask A Genius 649: San Junipero Style
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2021/12/07
[Recording Start]
Rick Rosner: Things like augmented humans in increasingly large numbers are becoming more common. One possibility is that with increasing lifespan and advancements in medicine, as well as several other factors like people living virtually, San Junipero style, population growth will likely slow down, maybe even stop. The total number of humans living traditionally may even gradually decline. On the other hand, the pleasures of being human have increased significantly since the 1970s – entertainment, food, and things are getting cheaper, which could work against the reduction in population. As technology gets more powerful, it’ll probably clean up most of the problems of climate change within this century and then overtake them.
It still seems a reasonable bet that the population growth of humans living as humans will continue to slow and will probably reach zero at some point. Right now, we’re just about at eight billion humans, and a hundred years from now, I guess we’ll be somewhere between 10 and 14 billion. We won’t keep doubling. Two hundred years from now, maybe that same range or maybe less.
Given how powerful technology will be 200 years from now, there will likely be entities moving back and forth between physical bodies and virtual living. The overall effect, I think, will be a world that has room for all the people and other conscious beings in it, which you could call the emptying world. The things you need to live in whatever form will be cheap enough that you can live a basic, pleasurable life without working too hard. The strain on the environment should be less, with a fairly steady population plus a bunch of technology, meaning we’re not messing up the world as much as we are now. If it turns out we’re only at 10 billion humans 200 years from now, there will be a lot of stuff for those humans. Manufacturing will be super powerful.
My wife and I have started collecting micro mosaics, and there’s an established market where they go for a certain amount of money. In a world with plenty of ways to live besides in a fleshy body, plus increasingly powerful tech, there should be a lot of stuff available for those who choose to live in the world in the coming centuries.
Now, people who want to live as humans should be able to live pretty decent lives, lives that are nicer than what not everyone has now. Not everyone can live in Florence or Paris, but with all the tech and a stable population, there should be enough great stuff to go around so that the world is nice 200 years from now, with less poverty and strife than now. Of course, people have been predicting this sort of thing for probably centuries. For 100 years, people have predicted that the workweek will shorten thanks to increased productivity. Productivity has increased, but we keep finding work to fill work weeks. It’s possible we’ll find new forms of strife to replace the forms of strife that tech will alleviate.
Despite that, I still picture a world 200 years from now that’s nice for people who want to continue to live as humans or who want to live as humans part of the time, and also a world that’s nice for those who want to live artificially and virtually. There might be disasters, like the virtual world getting wiped out in virtual wars, but I think it’s a historical trend that life keeps getting nicer. It’s probably better to live now as a middle-class person in a developed country than to be a king in the 17th century. I think this trend of life getting nicer will largely continue. The end.
[Recording End]
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