Ask A Genius 629: Point Two is Population Decline
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2021/09/14
[Recording Start]
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: Let’s move on to the second point?
Rick Rosner: Sure. I was examining a graph concerning the impact of COVID on global population growth. Initially, my thought was that its effect was minimal. Historically, significant plagues, like the Black Plague, drastically reduced the human population over a century or two, wiping out perhaps a third of Europe’s population. In contrast, the Spanish flu killed about 50 million people, which was more than 3%, possibly up to 5%, of the then global population of 1.5 billion. This would have required several years for recovery. COVID, however, has officially caused about 4.5 million deaths globally, maybe three times that unofficially, but still only a fraction of the world’s current population of 7.8 billion.
Jacobsen: So, not a substantial impact on population growth?
Rosner: Exactly. COVID might have delayed global population growth by a few months at most. If we’re concerned about overpopulation exacerbating issues like climate change, resource depletion, and international strife, COVID offers little relief. But the real question is how worried should we be about overpopulation? A common concern, especially in Western liberal circles, is climate change and the Earth’s survivability.
Before delving into that, let’s look at U.N. statistics on population growth rates since 1950 and projections until 2100. Presently, excluding COVID’s impact, the global population grows by about 1.03% annually. At this rate, we’d expect a doubling from 7.8 billion to 15.6 billion in about 70 years. However, this growth rate is decelerating. Last year it was 1.03%, the year before 1.05%, and a few years ago, around 1.11%. The U.N. projects a future growth rate of 0.03% by 2100, meaning it would take around 2,500 years to double the population. So, instead of reaching 15.6 billion by 2100, the U.N. estimates a rise to 10.87 billion, an increase of about three billion or less than 40%.
Jacobsen: That seems more manageable.
Rosner: Right, it seems feasible to accommodate a 40% increase over 80 years. An 11-billion-people planet will be different for numerous reasons, not just population. The U.N.’s estimates, however, likely don’t factor in certain elements. As nations become more prosperous, birth rates typically decline due to lower infant mortality and access to medical services. People in developed countries tend to have fewer children, and as lifespans increase, they have children later in life. If medical advancements allow for significantly longer or even indefinite lifespans, this trend could intensify. Also, the possibility of living in virtual environments and the increasing appeal of entertainment over physical relationships might further reduce birth rates.
There’s also the factor of gender fluidity potentially affecting birth rates. In Western countries, people are having less sex, which could lead to fewer children. Climate change concerns may also cause people to hesitate about bringing children into an uncertain future. All these factors combined might mean that the U.N.’s projection of nearly 11 billion by 2100 could be an overestimate.
Jacobsen: So, a potential decline in population growth rates?
Rosner: Yes, and once population growth stabilizes, many population-related issues will become less pressing. Climate change, while causing significant damage, may not directly result in mass casualties. The reduction in population growth, spurred by various factors, might see us closer to 10 billion, or even fewer, by 2100. With technological advancements, we could ensure that the majority of this population lives relatively well. That’s my take on it.
[Recording End]
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