Ask A Genius 624: Math of COVID Now
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2021/08/22
[Recording Start]
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: Alright, let’s jump into this topic. Rick, can you share your thoughts on the current state of COVID mathematically?
Rick Rosner: Sure, I’m not entirely up-to-date on the overall numbers, but let’s take a historical perspective first. The Spanish flu around 1918-1920, which is a bit vague, was a major pandemic. Estimates suggest it infected about one-third of the global population and killed at least 50 million people when the world’s population was between one and two billion. Now, turning to COVID, the situation is complex. Despite the Trump administration’s many flaws, the former head of the FDA seems credible, and he suggests that most Americans will either catch the Delta variant or be vaccinated. Official statistics indicate about 36 million Americans have been infected, about 11% of the population. Realistically, this figure is likely underreported, possibly by 50% or more. So, it’s safe to assume that at least 15% of Americans have had COVID. Additionally, about 60% have received at least one vaccine dose.
However, there’s overlap between those who’ve had COVID and those vaccinated. Roughly two-thirds of Americans have either been infected or vaccinated, leaving about 110 million, including children under 12 who are yet unvaccinated. Presently, we’re vaccinating about a million people per day and seeing around 200,000 new COVID cases daily. Given the two-dose nature of the vaccine, this rate translates to about 700,000 people either getting sick or vaccinated each day. With a susceptible population of 110 million, we’re potentially looking at around 150 days to reach near-total coverage, not necessarily to achieve herd immunity.
To attain herd immunity, we might need to vaccinate or expose about 80 million of these susceptible individuals. Dividing 80 million by the daily rate of 700,000 gives us a timeline of approximately three to four more months of significant COVID impact in America. Interestingly, this wave might result in more infections than when we had no one vaccinated under Trump.
Regarding the Delta variant’s trajectory, like in India, it could last about three months before subsiding, though the reasons for its decline are unclear. Theories range from widespread infection to poor reporting. In summary, we could be facing three more challenging months with COVID in the U.S., unless something unexpected and positive happens. I’d rather not speculate on the global COVID situation, as I feel less qualified to comment on that. The end.
[Recording End]
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