Ask A Genius 615: More Flu!
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2021/07/21
[Recording Start]
Rick Rosner: Let us delve into the topic of the Spanish flu, traditionally referred to as the 1918 or 1919 Spanish flu. Its moniker is somewhat misleading, as it originated not in Spain but in Oklahoma. The name arose during World War I, under President Wilson’s administration, which imposed strict media controls. As a result, there was minimal reporting on the flu’s severity in America, while outbreaks in other countries, particularly Spain, received more coverage. This led to the misnomer ‘Spanish flu,’ though a more geographically accurate name would be the ‘Oklahoma flu.’ Today, it is known by other terms as well.
Considering the absence of vaccines at that time, one ponders how the pandemic subsided. With an estimated global population of 1.5 billion, the Spanish flu claimed over 50 million lives, accounting for more than three percent of the world’s population. It is estimated that a third of the global population contracted the virus. While this level of infection does not necessarily confer herd immunity, the lack of widespread air travel at the time might have facilitated a form of localized herd immunity. The virus likely mutated into a less lethal or contagious form, contributing to its decline. By the summer of 1919, after about a year of prevalence, the pandemic’s intensity diminished, though it continued to affect some regions into 1920.
Drawing parallels to the current situation, approximately 3.6 billion vaccine doses have been administered globally to a population nearing eight billion. However, with only about 20 percent of the world vaccinated, we fall short of achieving herd immunity. The emergence of the highly contagious Delta variant compounds this challenge. The former head of a significant U.S. health agency suggested that most unvaccinated individuals in America are likely to contract it, given its rapid spread in England, where vaccination rates are commendable. Yet, the Delta variant predominantly affects younger, unvaccinated individuals.
In the U.S., vaccination rates vary significantly, with some regions, particularly those historically associated with the Civil War, showing much lower vaccination rates. This disparity is evident in the recent 800% increase in new daily cases in Los Angeles County. While the Delta variant is less lethal, its contagiousness could result in a surge of cases comparable to the worst phases of the pandemic. This is compounded by the fact that the impact of COVID-19 can be long-lasting, as seen in the case of my acquaintance, JD, who still experiences altered symptoms six months post-infection.
Recent shifts in conservative media, particularly Fox News, towards advocating vaccination, might be attributed to various factors, including legal concerns, economic implications, and political motivations. These changes coincide with a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases in Florida, currently the epicenter of new cases in the U.S.
In summary, we stand on the brink of a significant wave, potentially the second largest of the five waves experienced in the U.S. This current surge, characterized by rapidly increasing daily cases, is particularly frustrating as it is largely preventable through vaccination. The end.
[Recording End]
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