Ask A Genius 575 – And the Winner is…
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2020/11/02
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Scott Douglas Jacobsen: Who’s going to win?
Rick Rosner: I think Biden will pull it out. I’m very confident that he’ll do better than Hillary, even in the Electoral College. He’ll do better than Hillary. That still leaves the zone where he does better than Hillary and still loses the Electoral College. The Republican challenges to the vote will largely be ineffective at disqualifying a large number of voters. So, there’s still the possibility in the cheaty states like Georgia and Florida that there will be Election Day fucking over of Democratic voters in poorer neighborhoods. That generally happens; that they have fewer voting machines. They get broken voting machines. Where whitey can just show up and stand in the zero line or a line that takes 10 minutes, while black people can stand in line up to eight hours, that’ll probably go on. But people are pissed enough. They’ll put up with it to get their votes and so on.
And so, Biden will, very sure, do better. Then I’m as sure as the poll aggregators are. I mean, it would be, I guess, even more shocking for him to lose than it was for Hillary. They will definitely retain the House of Representatives. The polls give the aggregate Democrats a 75% or 74% chance of taking the Senate. I’m pretty sure that those predictions are reasonable. I might even be a little more confident than that in Democrats taking the Senate, giving help, given how pissed everybody is and how many people have voted early on and just how shitty the Republican senators are. Martha McSally in Arizona, Susan Collins in Maine and Joni Ernst, maybe; I mean, she’s shitty, but she’s got her races. She probably will win, even though she’s shitty. Kelly Lynn Loeffler in Georgia, this appointed Senator married to the head of the New York Stock Exchange worth five hundred million dollars.
Took what she learned about Covid in February and sold all her stocks and bought stocks in shit that was going to go up, if Covid got really bad, she did insider trading, though. She may not be at a limit. I think she’ll lose, but she may not lose by enough to avoid a runoff.
If Democrats get to 50/50 in the Senate, then the vice president becomes the tie breaking vote. So, Democrats currently have 46 or 47 senators. So, we need to get the presidency and four seats out of twelve Republican Senate seats, maybe more that are up for grabs. Anyway, I’d say, “I don’t know.” 78 to 80% confidence. We get the Senate, the end.
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