Ask A Genius 566 – 15 Weeks
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2020/07/21
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Scott Douglas Jacobsen: It is 15 weeks until the election. What is the deal now?
Rick Rosner: Trump has gone from 45.8% approval to 40.3%. That’s the difference between making it a close election and it being not close. So, I look at those approval numbers several times a day. Carole and I are seriously considering…
If Trump won, depending on the circumstances of him winning, and if he stays behind and wins due to outside interference, then it might be a good time or prudent to look at moving out of the country because things are seriously broken.
But Trump’s approval rating has been the smallest range of approval ratings of any president since they started polling approval 80 years ago. But even so, he has had, for him, some big swings in fairly short amount of time.
With 15 weeks to ago, it starts being very statistically unlikely that he can climb back up to 45% approval in only 15 weeks. Although, he could still do it. There’s a thing called an October surprise where opposition tries to drop crazy bad shit in the week before the election.
For Hillary Clinton, it happened in November 8 days before voting began when Comey said she was under investigation by the F.B.I. again for her emails. Beyond that, outside of some October surprise, it will be tough for him to move his approval more than a couple percent in the time that is left. As it gets tighter and tighter, and as more people vote early by mail, his electoral destiny becomes more cemented.
So, it is the beginning of the end of the time that he can do anything to help himself, which is why he is holding Covid press conferences. Including today, except excusing a child rapist and wishing her well, he was actually pretty well behaved at his press conference.
He stuck to his pre-written speech and notes and talked about the great things he is doing to save the country from coronavirus, which, if you know anything about what he has done, is stupid. It is stupid people who vote for him and it may have sounded kind of okay to stupid people.
His approval numbers hit the highest when he was having daily Covid briefings. But that was 140,000 Covid deaths ago. He may not be able to help himself with the daily briefings as he was able to help himself 3 months ago. At this point, we’re counting the days and hoping his assholery stays clear to a pretty big majority of the nation.
The end.
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