Ask A Genius 401 – Moore’s Law As Moore’s Laws (2)
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2018/10/03
Scott Douglas Jacobsen: How did the conversation with the AI guy go?
Rick Rosner: I talked to a guy who works in AI. He told me that I was way off about human-level AI in the near future.
I said that we were talking about different things. I said I was talking about computational density. That is, we are coming close to the computational density of the human brain.
But we are, certainly, farther away from replicating the architecture of the brain. At that point, we got distracted and then the conversation fizzled out. He would have fought me if the conversation continued.
He would argue that it would take about 100 years or more to replicate the architecture of the human brain. I disagree. I think replicating the architecture will go slow initially and then fast.
It will be a hockey stick thing, which is seen everything in the development of technology. It goes hand-in-hand with science fiction stuff. The predicted stuff never shows up as soon as it is predicted to show up in science fiction, but, eventually, it does show up.
If you combine both things, it will take longer to replicate brain architecture. But when it takes place, it will happen in a hockey stick manner. It will be sputtery and puttering and not great and then become super efficient.
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