Ask A Genius 251 – Chance and Sport
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2017/08/06
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Scott Douglas Jacobsen: So, what’s the deal with the chance and sports?
Rick Rosner: So, the deal in sport is people feel that victories, defeats, mean something. And I just came across data that quantifies how chancey each sport is. And it kinda verified my suspicion that baseball is the chanciest of the sports.
Kinda on a par with hockey, anytime you have a low amount of scoring, that allows for more chance of outcomes and games.
I guess with basketball it’s got the most instances. The sport of least chance has the probability that the less good team wins. I really wanted to know who the best team is, in a playoff or in a game, you’d play forever possibly, with a chance victory by the lousier team.
It’s ruled out. In baseball 9 innings, and in hockey, 3 periods are not enough for that to be ruled out. Baseball you might have to play 24 innings across 2 days to really squeeze out the chance, the lousier team then wins down to a less than 10%. I’m just guessing with the super bowl, where a game was that important. You’re only playing 4 quarters, so the lousier team can win.
So, if you’re really interested in the fairest outcome, it really tells you which team is the best. The super bowl should probably be at least 6 quarters or probably double.
The super bowl should be twice as long as it is played across 2 days if you have to. People don’t want that. The best team doesn’t always win. People will tend to ignore chance and instead kind of victories and defeat in the structure.
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