People, Personas, and Politics 3 – Disagreements
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen and Rick Rosner
Publication (Outlet/Website): People, Personas, and Politics
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2017/03/22
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Rick Rosner: So that means that Trump has something like 9% support among Democrats. 35% among Independent. 88% support among Republicans. There’s high levels of disagreement. I think Trump came in at tied at 46% approval and 46% disapproval. The average president loses roughly 24 percentage points of approval during his first year, which, if that happened to trump, that would bring him down to 22% approval.
Although, that seems less likely because he is starting 30 or 40 points below most presidents. So he has less far to fall. He has already fallen 9 percentage points. It’s not unreasonable to think he could fall another 8 or 10 points into the 20s. Once you drop below 30 in approval, no president has recovered from that. Every president who has dropped—4 presidents have dropped to the 20s in approval. All of those presidents were gone within a year-and-a-half.
Once Nixon dropped into the 20s, he was gone within a year. Truman gone within a year-and-a-half. George W. Bush gone within a year or two. Again, Trump has the protection of having 46 months to go in his term. He could hang on, or the disapproval could make him crazier. The lack of approval. He could do more tweet storms to the point where the Republicans think it might be safer for themselves and the country to have a reliable and steady Republican as president with Pence.
Or Trump could just quit or could cite health reasons. Not that Trump had a lot of credibility with the people who don’t like him anyway, we had the hearings with the intelligence agencies – Comey and other intelligence agency heads – before the house. They were saying trump basically made up that he had been wiretapped and had no credibility on that. People want credibility. We’re in new territory because we’ve never had a president who is considered this untrustworthy this soon in office.
A president wo is so willing to use social media in an uncareful way. The math looks super unfavorable to him. But we’ve never had a president like this. So the math doesn’t rule everything. That’s pretty much what I’ve got.
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