So, What, Now? The Next 20 Years.
Author(s): Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Medium (Personal)
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2024/01/28
Dear North American Secularists,
The central population devoted to Trump-like politics is the married, Evangelical Christian, Republican, European-American base, which is between the ages of about 59 and 77.
Almost 20,000,000 of this population of 76,000,000 are dead. Only some identify with formulating philosophy as theology, social organization as an ethnic identity and God-given mandate, and political identity as biblically-driven. They are less diverse than other demographics, certainly, but diverse nonetheless.
In terms of the long arc of the Church and State war for the ‘soul’ of the United States of America, secularists, by and large, have been winning the war and will probably win the war.
However, as there must be some, there will be significant setbacks in the achievements, as we are seeing. Roe v Wade, naturally, was a huge one. We have observed this in several countries in terms of the setbacks.
Which should be cause for vigilance, not despair; the anti-immigrant fears of these populations are rooted in reality in two parts: one, this population is not replacing itself; two, that population is bleeding out.
They do not want immigration because this represents furtherance of an ongoing process of dilution of their demographic authority. Something has been happening over several decades.
There is a small quantity of this in Canada, but nowhere near as strong as in the States. In 2021, the American population was 331,900,000 people — about 56,000,000 out of 331,900,000 or 16.9% of the population.
That is nothing. That population is likely a smaller portion, given that the numbers were from 2021. Also, as noted above, only a non-total but large subpopulation of the 16.9% actually adheres to these ideological positions.
They are aging out, dying, or leaving those movements. The question is not a timeline in the short term. We will experience setbacks from internal disagreements and infighting.
We will witness massive setbacks for women’s and others’ equality. I do not believe in a divine arc to justice. However, I consider the arc a statistical orientation tending to the betterment of lives in general.
In the next 20 years, when we cannot blame others for problems in society, those who still do this will have to answer for things done now and in the future.
We should act now based on how the world will likely be 20 years from now, not on these historic moments before us.
We are at a precipice with general artificial intelligence as a possibility, with nuclear annihilation as a threat, with anthropogenic climate change as more urgent than ever, and a growing number of problems sociopolitically and economically in societies.
Secularists of all stripes have a role to play in combating these problems in a rational, considered manner. So, to me, we cannot be a force of oppositional change forever.
We must be something beyond implementing common values in response to Church and State separation challenges, identity equality, science education, etc. We must be a proactive force more than ever, selling the positive compelling vision of a world without gods: The goodness of the ordinariness of secular values and ideas.
It is not a difference in the ranking of the values or the values themselves. It is a difference in the frame or orientation of the values. This is the issue before us. How shall we build a new frame fit for those values in the next 20 years?
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