Ask A Genius 970: Betting on Biden or Trump
Author(s): Rick Rosner and Scott Douglas Jacobsen
Publication (Outlet/Website): Ask A Genius
Publication Date (yyyy/mm/dd): 2024/06/24Rick Rosner: I like making political bets because I feel like I can find odds that are askew in politics, where I can’t find them in sports. I’m not good enough to find that stuff in sports. Most people aren’t. I found online odds on who’s going to win the presidential debate. Biden and Trump in three days. The odds are minus 150 for Trump and plus 110 for Biden, which means if you bet a dollar on Trump, you get your dollar back and 60 cents or 67 cents. So Trump is the favorite to win the debate. If you bet on Biden, you get your dollar back and a dollar 10 on top of it. So Biden is less favored; Trump is over 50% likely to win according to these odds, and Biden’s under 50%. These odds are probably skewed by people betting on Trump winning. But that’s good because if people skew the odds. So I looked at how Trump has performed before, and Trump has never won even a single poll after a debate. This online bookie is using CNN polls, and there are four CNN polls after Trump’s various debates with Clinton and with Biden in 2016 and 2020. Trump lost on average these debates 60% to 32%. On average, CNN poll respondents, 60% said his opponent won and 32% said he won. So to me, Trump never having won a debate poll ever means I should be betting. It seems like a good bet that maybe there’s an 80% chance of Biden winning. It’s four years later; things have changed, but I think things have changed. Plus, the rules this time are there’s no audience and they cut off your mic when you’re not speaking, making it harder for Trump to interrupt. And making it harder for Trump to sway via having an audience full of Trump supporters. So, I feel reasonably good about this bet. I’m hoping that the same skewedness applies to the election where everybody’s saying that Biden’s in trouble and Trump is going to win. I’m hoping it’s indicative that people are similarly deluded about Trump’s chances. Bookies’ odds are seemingly skewed, and we’ll find out in four days. The end.
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